Data Revealed: 335 Binance Alpha Tokens - Is the "Altcoin Season" Really Here?

Original Title: Data Reveals 335 Binance Alpha Tokens: Has the "Altcoin Season" Really Arrived?

Original Author: Frank, PANews
With the surge of multiple Binance Alpha tokens, discussions about the altcoin season led by Binance Alpha have once again become rampant.

Many users are discussing on social media what kind of logic could be the potential key to wealth. However, this so-called altcoin season is actually just a cognitive bias triggered by a few "explosive" projects. But if we want to find commonalities among these wealth keys, what kind of token conditions among the Binance Alpha tokens could lead the market?

PANews conducted a comprehensive data analysis of the 335 tokens launched on Binance Alpha, exploring the true wealth keys behind them from multiple dimensions such as market capitalization, chain distribution, trading pair types, and whether they were airdropped, and delving into an ultimate question: Has the so-called Binance Alpha "altcoin season" really arrived?

The Altcoin Season May Be an Illusion, Only 5 Tokens Doubled in Value in the Past Week

According to PANews' analysis of the 335 tokens launched on Binance Alpha, their market performance exhibits two core characteristics: a widespread "listing pump effect" and a stark "performance polarization."

Widespread Pump Effect: From the overall data, the average increase of these tokens since their launch is 74.6%, while the historical average maximum increase is as high as 190%. This means that the vast majority of tokens experienced a strong pump after landing on the Alpha platform. Specifically, 120 tokens (35%) once doubled in price after listing, while only 19 tokens never surpassed their issuance price.

Performance Polarization: However, the long-term performance after the pump varies greatly. As of now, although 146 tokens (43.5%) have increased in value, with 44 of them doubling, the star project MYX has even achieved an astonishing return of 123 times. At the same time, 81 tokens (24%) have seen their prices halved, with the maximum drop exceeding 97%.

Market Capitalization Distribution Characteristics: In terms of project size, the average market capitalization of these tokens is $84.22 million, with a median of $18.58 million. Among them, the number of projects with a market capitalization exceeding $100 million is the highest (48), followed by projects in the $10 million to $20 million range. This also indicates that although there are small projects with a total market capitalization below $1 million in the market, the mainstream projects on the Alpha platform still have a certain scale.

Data from the Past Week: 141 tokens have increased in value in the past week, with MYX still leading with a 7-day increase of 1064%. However, there are actually not many tokens that have increased by more than double in the past week, only 5. From the statistical data, the average price fluctuation of Binance Alpha tokens in the past week is only 7.8%, far less than the fluctuation over the entire period. Therefore, the recent explosion of the altcoin season on Binance Alpha may just be a cognitive bias and does not exist universally.

More Tokens That Are Listed on Contracts but Not on Spot Trading?

In addition, one of the hot topics discussed on social media is that tokens listed on Binance contracts but not on spot trading may have larger price increases.

First of all, from an overall perspective, currently, only 28 tokens have been listed on Binance's spot trading pairs, accounting for only 8.3%, and the vast majority have also been listed on contract trading pairs. The number of trading pairs listed on contracts is relatively high, reaching 121, accounting for 36%. There are 94 tokens that are only listed on contracts but not on spot trading pairs, and these tokens have an average increase of 27% in the past 7 days, indeed higher than the average of all tokens. In comparison, tokens that have not been listed on contract trading pairs have an average increase of -1.7%, and have been in a downward trend over the past week.

In terms of market capitalization, tokens that have not been listed on contracts have an average market capitalization of around $35.96 million, while tokens that have been listed on contracts have an average market capitalization of about $160 million. Clearly, tokens with higher market capitalizations are more likely to be prioritized for contract trading listings. Over the entire period, tokens that have been listed on contracts have achieved an average increase of 190%, with the historical maximum increase averaging 297%, showing better performance, while tokens listed on spot trading have only achieved an average increase of 45.77% (referring to performance after being listed on Alpha).

In comparison, tokens that are listed on contracts but not on spot trading have an average increase of 230%, with an average maximum increase of 355%, indicating that tokens meeting this condition indeed perform better.

BSC Chain Has Obvious Local Advantages, Average Increase Exceeds Double

Is there also a different effect based on the chain?

From the distribution of chains, among the currently listed tokens, there are 22 on the Base chain, with an average increase of 26%; there are 211 tokens on the BSC chain, with an average increase of 101%; there are 28 tokens on the Ethereum chain, with an average increase of about 33.4%; and there are 64 tokens on the Solana chain, with an average increase of about 37%.

From the distribution of chains, BSC, as a native public chain, is indeed more favored by the market, with market performance superior to tokens on other public chains.

Buying Old Tokens, Not New Ones: Popular Tokens Generally Listed Earlier

What characteristics do the recently most increased tokens have?

1. Tokens on the BSC chain dominate; among the 5 tokens that increased by over 100% in the past week, 4 are from the BSC chain, and 1 is issued on the Solana chain.

2. The listed tokens are not newly launched; these tokens were generally launched in May and July, with only one launched on August 24.

3. Three of the tokens have listed contract trading pairs, but this does not seem to indicate a direct relationship between large increases and the listing of contract trading.

4. In terms of market capitalization distribution, there is no significant statistical meaning. The market capitalization of these 5 tokens ranges from hundreds of thousands to billions of dollars. However, 4 of the tokens have a market capitalization exceeding $10 million.

If we take a longer view and analyze tokens that have increased by over 100% since their launch, there may be more reference points.

1. In terms of market capitalization, these tokens generally have market capitalizations exceeding $10 million, and tokens with market capitalizations over $100 million generally rank higher in terms of increases.

2. The number of tokens listed on contracts accounts for 54.5%, but this does not seem to directly prove a necessary connection between high increases and the listing of contract trading.

3. The number of tokens issued on the BSC chain accounts for 56%, while the number issued on Solana accounts for 22.7%. The total proportion of these two chains reaches nearly 80%.

4. There is a clear distinction in the timing of listing on Binance Alpha. The distribution of listing times is as follows: April (12), May (4), June (3), July (16), August (6), September (3). From this data, it is evident that tokens listed in April, July, and August perform better in the market.

Airdrops May Actually Be Detrimental to Token Price Increases?

Another angle of concern in the market is how tokens that have participated in Binance Alpha airdrop activities perform. According to PANews' investigation, the number of tokens that have undergone Alpha airdrops is 144. The average increase of these tokens to date is about 29%, which is actually lower than the performance of all Alpha tokens. Among them, 91 tokens have seen their prices decline since being listed on Alpha, with the largest drop reaching 97%. However, from the perspective of maximum increases, these tokens experienced a price surge after being listed on Alpha, with an average maximum increase of about 1235%. However, upon examining the data, it can be seen that REX achieved a maximum increase of 1457 times after being listed, which was caused by a short-term abnormal K-line. After excluding such abnormal data, the average maximum increase is about 118%.

However, when the data filtering criteria are set to include tokens that have participated in airdrop activities and have already listed on Binance contract trading, the average increase of these tokens reaches 91%, with an average maximum increase of 196%. This data performs better than the average level of airdrop tokens but is lower than the average level of contract tokens.

From this perspective, whether or not to list contract trading has become one of the most critical favorable factors for Binance Alpha tokens. Conversely, participating in airdrops does not seem to have any positive effect on the market price of the project itself and may even have a counterproductive effect.

Optimal Combination: Listed on Contracts, Not on Spot Trading, BSC Chain, No Airdrop

So, returning to our ultimate question, what kind of tokens might be the best-performing category among Binance Alpha? Combining previous analyses, we can see several potential favorable conditions from multiple dimensions: listing on contract trading, issued on the BSC chain, no airdrop, and not listed on spot trading.

After overlapping several conditions, if the tokens are issued on the BSC chain and have listed contract trading, the average increase has already reached 280%, higher than tokens that are only listed on contracts. If we further add the filter of not being listed on spot trading, the average increase will reach 359%. The strongest filtering condition is tokens that are listed on contracts, not listed on spot trading, not issued as airdrops, and issued on the BSC chain; under this condition, the average increase of such tokens reaches 620%, with an average maximum increase of 764%, and a recent increase of 54%, with data from various angles almost reaching optimal conditions.

At this point, it seems we have found the key to potential stocks on Binance Alpha, and the number of tokens under such condition filtering is only 26. Upon careful analysis of the reasons for this result, we can find that in this process, the listing of contract trading and whether it is issued on the BSC chain have become the most critical factors, while the other factors seem more like auxiliary elements. However, ironically, these auxiliary factors are not due to these projects or tokens doing more, but rather not listing on spot trading and not conducting airdrops, which is a form of subtraction.

Fundamentally, the underlying logic may be that airdrop tokens bring a large number of low-priced chips to the market, creating a dumping effect. Not listing on spot trading and only listing on contract trading means that the price of these tokens is relatively easier to manage. Of course, for investors holding spot tokens, price increases are always a good thing, but for investors who prefer contract trading, the volatility of such tokens is also greater, making it easy to create a short squeeze effect.

However, it is worth noting that the conditions established in the above research are based on historical data and may have the possibility of overfitting. Additionally, a major regret in the research process is that we were unable to classify these tokens and provide more specific project information, which may be more important factors. Therefore, these research conclusions should not be used as actual investment judgment criteria. It is hoped that such research serves merely as a guiding method to inspire readers and provide a new perspective.

The current opportunity is not a mindless buy to profit in the early stages of a bull market, but rather a structural market that requires careful selection and in-depth analysis. For investors, understanding the logic behind this phenomenon is far more important than simply chasing hot trends. Because in this game dominated by contract trading and characterized by extreme volatility, the other side of opportunity is always the risk that needs to be vigilant.