Market Review: The Survival Study of the Post-Cycle Market

Original Title: Let the Winds Blow from All Directions
Source: Laolu

Compiled by: Zhou, ChainCatcher

I believe that character determines destiny.

First of all, I am obviously more of a left-leaning i person, maintaining rationality most of the time, accustomed to planning ahead, but also easily missing out. The most direct manifestation is: when faced with a decline, I tend to buy more as it drops, but resist chasing when the market rallies. This "conservatively rational" trading style makes it difficult to capture the entire trend, often leading to premature regret.

Hiding skill in clumsiness, many lessons are worth remembering but need to be let go: after selling 2.6 million APX at 0.11 (approximately $6M at 2.3), even if Aster opened and I held all, my selling position would never exceed 0.3. So the subsequent rally from 0.4 to 2.4 indeed had nothing to do with me. Letting go of myself also means letting go of missed opportunities.

There are countless similar examples; recently, I ended up losing money on 600M Pengu at mid-year, selling at about 0.046 (approximately $27M). I wouldn't have sold even if it rallied, and even if it did, I wouldn't have gotten that position. Ultimately, I have become accustomed to these occurrences. At the same time, I enjoy recording and reviewing, feeling that my decision-making is now more neutral than before, daring to make some right-side operations I previously hesitated to do, and recovering from negative emotions more quickly.

The ideal version of myself is to become an angel investor like "DCF" or "CL," but due to various market changes, I may have to give up this path.

Be a Better Version of Yourself, Not Someone Else

There are always people in the market saying, "So-and-so bought something and made so much money."

In the past, I would be influenced, following along with exclamations and emotional fluctuations. Now, I adjust much faster; I can still express my feelings but my psychological fluctuations have decreased significantly, focusing only on my own small gains.

Living in the market, the most important thing is not to imitate others, but to accept your own rhythm and bear the profits and losses of your own decisions. Regrettable positions are yours, and emotions should also belong to you, not outsourced to anyone else.

Behind Success

Behind every seemingly beautiful operation is countless blood, tears, and pitfall experiences that need to be recorded and summarized.

Also referencing 0xSun's records.

I also enjoy recording and reviewing; I previously had a public Notion, and in the stablecoin sector, I have accumulated at least five years of experience.

In this cycle, many projects lose my interest at first glance; truly exciting projects are rare, and when encountered, one should go all out without hesitation.

Looking back at ZKF, BIO, ETH, Plasma… there are indeed many regrets, losses from not daring to hedge, losses from not daring to increase positions, opportunity costs during waiting periods, etc.

When I first met Snow, she asked me what type of projects I liked to participate in. I said it depends on the project situation, hoping for early opportunities for community involvement. I can share early on, and friends who see my content can also make money. I am very happy to see similar projects finally appearing in the market.

Behind Failure

"XX is going to launch XX, XX is going to rally, so-and-so bought XXX." These voices can always be heard in the market.
The belief in trading cannot be borrowed. Every time I passively follow trades without independent thinking, it almost always ends in failure. Positions without conviction are too easy to flip.

Fortunately, I am diligent about stopping losses, which allows me to retain capital and confidence for another battle, as the saying goes, "preserve the green mountains." Some trades that do not stop losses end up at zero, and this has happened many times, but the losses are limited.

Experiences of failure are more valuable to learn from than experiences of success; success is often not replicable, and most people's failures may be similar. Avoiding pitfalls and defense are very important.

"The core of wealth growth is to avoid large drawdowns," is daidai's Twitter bio, which is very true; Ben also adheres to this principle.

Dissolved Community

When I first entered this industry, I was involved in blockchain gaming guilds, and later in wallet products. I really enjoyed the atmosphere of group chats, treating everyone equally, whether they were unknowns or industry leaders.

This is not the first dissolution, and it may not be the last. But this time will be a longer break. The reason is simple: I can no longer continuously provide more valuable information and market insights.

Even so, I still thank my group friends for the continuous emotional value and positive feedback they provided, confirming the significance of this matter, and I hope to meet again in other groups.

"But the sky will eventually darken, and people must part ways; no one can accompany anyone forever."

Decent KOL

Professionalism & Content Quality

Create less FOMO and rehashing, and provide more logical analysis.

Dare to admit mistakes and also dare to say "I don't know."

Do not frequently "shout signals to cut leeks" or spread false information.

Not every project is accepted; instead, selectively recommend protocols I recognize, not just posting a few ads to make quick money when the market is hot.

Character & Credibility

Dare to share real trades, real emotions, and real positions.

Consistent long-term values, able to discuss with the community rather than only allowing flattery.

Can remind of risks, without encouraging excessive FOMO.

Do not touch other people's funds to avoid economic disputes.

Handled funds beyond imagination when broke, yet still uphold the bottom line and fulfill commitments.

Review after falling, rather than shifting blame to others for rights protection, and remain grateful.

Growth & Relationships

Continuously learn, making ongoing progress in narrative, technology, and investment strategies.

Maintain boundaries, not overly tying personal life and emotions to market fluctuations.

Believe in "Skin in the game," hoping to stand on the same boat with real capital positions rather than pointing from behind a screen. Of course, this has also led to many losses, which I won't enumerate.

Market Insights & Facing the Future

The current market may only have the last 2 years of a bull period left. The end of a cycle often accompanies superficial prosperity and capital influx, but the difficulty of truly making money is higher because more and more participants are entering, becoming smarter, and the competition is fiercer, with the market becoming more fragmented.

Changes in Market Participant Structure

It is no longer the wild era of "just charging in can win" from a few years ago; more rational, professional, and execution-oriented individuals are coming in.

Institutions, funds, and quantitative teams treat the market as a professional battlefield, continuously improving efficiency. If Western countries are so friendly in embracing this, are there even larger players?

The new generation of retail investors is faster, more adept at using tools, has stronger learning abilities, and understands risk management better.

After buying xx project, who will be the next buyer? That group has disappeared.

Tool Upgrades & Information Gap Narrowing

Information flows faster, and mature tools allow information in the market to be disseminated almost in real-time.

When you read protocol-specific information, some information may already be outdated.

Strategy iteration accelerates: the lifespan of a profitable strategy may only be a few weeks, and arbitrage and gameplay patterns quickly become saturated to the point of no profit, affecting not only retail investors but also the main players.

The Harsh Reality of Competition

Those who survive are all experts: researchers, arbitrageurs, project teams, speculators, scientists, hackers, each trying their best to make money.

Every profitable position has another person losing money behind it.

The rise of BTC in this cycle has not actually exceeded the rise of many other leading investment fields.

Primary funds are no longer making money; many are closing down due to losses, while long-cycle large funds can still rely on their old capital.

The secondary market has stripped away the labels of the projects themselves, reducing them to mere chip games, playing size guessing with the main players.

Meme has become transparent with the support of various mature tools, but celebrity coins still come and go.

Projects without resources cannot attract funding no matter how well they perform, while projects with resources are not important for what they do.

Streamline strategies, filter out noise, reduce unnecessary socializing and ineffective information input, focus attention on in-depth research and action, striving to achieve "holding on, understanding, and daring to increase positions," and finally quietly leave the bustling table, taking away my own story along with these regrets.

"Regardless of how it ends, at least we once gathered together without the need to bind each other with promises or words."

Click to learn about ChainCatcher's job openings