4E: Long-term holders sell $45 billion in BTC, U.S. government shutdown may delay crypto legislation until 2026

According to 4E observations, Bitcoin plummeted by 7.4% on Tuesday, falling below $100,000 for the first time since June. On-chain data shows that long-term holders sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoins, worth about $45 billion, over the past month, which has become the main reason for this round of decline. Analysts believe that the continuous selling pressure in the spot market has led to an imbalance in market structure, especially as some long-term wallets chose to cash out at high levels, further exacerbating the short-term supply-demand imbalance.

Uncertainty in U.S. politics has also become a risk catalyst. The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 36 days, setting a historical record, which may force the "Crypto Market Structure Bill" to be postponed until 2026. White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt stated that the shutdown of relevant departments severely affects the drafting of the bill text; Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger also pointed out that legislative delays have almost become a foregone conclusion.

Bitcoin is approaching the oversold zone, with some indicators like RSI showing signs of stabilization, but a clear stop-loss signal has not yet formed. The market may still need to undergo a deleveraging process dominated by spot trading before confirming the bottom.

Citibank pointed out that the root cause of the weakness in the crypto market lies in the slowdown of capital inflows into spot ETFs and a decline in risk appetite. Since the beginning of October, net inflows into ETFs have significantly contracted, coupled with Bitcoin falling below the 200-day moving average and financing rates retreating, indicating that institutional and leveraged demand is cooling down simultaneously. Citibank believes that the flow of ETF funds remains a key indicator for assessing shifts in market sentiment.

4E Commentary: The market downturn is suppressed by macro liquidity and also reflects the shift in funding rhythm control after the crypto market enters an "institution-led" phase. If ETF funds resume inflows and macro uncertainty eases, it may become a signal for the next round of stabilization.