Bernstein: The market's annual trading volume is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 80%

According to Theblock, the analyst team at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predicts that by 2030, the annual trading volume of the prediction market will reach $1 trillion, citing reasons such as regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and structural liquidity advantages compared to the traditional gaming market.

It is reported that the trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket has reached a total of $60 billion so far this year, with analysts expecting the trading volume to reach $240 billion by 2026 and maintain an 80% compound annual growth rate by the end of 2030.

Sports entertainment contracts currently account for as much as 62% of the trading volume in the prediction market, but analysts predict that this share may slow down to around 31% by the end of 2030, as cryptocurrency, macroeconomic, political, and economic contracts will become larger long-term opportunities. They stated that sports events are just a starting point, not the ultimate goal.