1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this week, and Powell's term may be briefly extended

• The FOMC's decision from the April 28-29 meeting is announced today, with the market generally expecting the federal funds rate to remain at current levels. The focus is on whether the wording of the statement suggests that the path to rate cuts is essentially on hold.
• Republican Senator Tillis stated that Powell may stay on the Federal Reserve Board for a short period after his term ends on May 15, awaiting the results of construction project reviews and related appeals.
• This statement echoes the expectation of a "last dance," likely ensuring policy continuity in the short term. However, if the statement leans hawkish, the market's pricing for subsequent easing will be further delayed.

Market Impact: Uncertainty regarding the interest rate path may continue to suppress the valuation of risk assets, with precious metals and cryptocurrencies under pressure in the short term. However, if the statement releases dovish signals, it may boost safe-haven demand.

International Commodities

The UAE announces its exit from OPEC on May 1, with limited short-term oil price fluctuations

• The UAE has officially exited OPEC, and mainstream Wall Street investment banks believe that short-term fluctuations in Brent crude oil are unlikely, primarily due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a bottleneck for energy exports.
• In the medium term, if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran and shipping through the Strait returns to normal, the UAE will be free to expand production beyond quota limits, increasing global supply pressure and raising the risk of declining oil prices.
• Trump previously portrayed Iran as being in a "state of collapse," while the U.S. simultaneously prohibited domestic entities from paying Iran for Strait passage fees, further escalating geopolitical tensions.

Market Impact: Oil prices are supported in the short term by geopolitical risks, but medium-term expectations of supply easing may weaken OPEC+'s ability to support prices. Energy inflation pressure remains an important variable in Federal Reserve decision-making.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump's approval rating drops to a new low during his term, with cost of living and the Iran situation as main reasons

• The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval rating has fallen to 34%, down from mid-April, primarily due to rising living costs and the Iran situation pushing up energy prices.
• Public recognition of economic performance is low, with only 22% approving of his actions regarding living costs.

Market Impact: The decline in polling may increase policy uncertainty, combined with the transmission of energy prices, leading to a rise in short-term inflation expectations, negatively impacting the pricing of risk assets.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 0.18%, reported at $4600 per ounce, with two consecutive days of pullback.
• Spot Silver: Up about 0.3%, reported at $73 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down about 0.73%, reported at about $99 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down about 0.57%, reported at $103 per barrel.
• Dollar Index: Currently reported at 98.58, slightly down.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down about 1.3% in 24H, currently reported at about $76,300, slightly retreating after fluctuations, waiting for FOMC decision catalyst.
• ETH: Down about 0.77% in 24H, currently reported at about $2,280.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down about 1% in 24H, total market cap around $2.64 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H about $189 million, with long positions liquidated about $127 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $76,300, with concentrated short liquidations in the $77k--$78k range. Short-term bias leans towards "squeezing shorts" to test resistance upwards. However, near $75k, long leverage is still accumulating, and a drop below may trigger a chain liquidation of long positions, leading to a rapid decline.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $22.5 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $8.6 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Inflows of $1.726 billion, outflows of $1.786 billion, net outflow of $60 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.05%, reported at about 49,142 points, with relatively stable consecutive movements.
• S&P 500: Down 0.49%, reported at about 7,138.8 points, with key characteristics being the drag from technology weights.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.9%, reported at about 24,663.8 points, with sector drivers being AI-related stocks under pressure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): $270.71 (+1.15%)
• Microsoft (MSFT): $425.10 (+1.04%)
• NVIDIA (NVDA): $213.50 (-1.59%)
• Amazon (AMZN): $261.20 (-0.52%)
• Alphabet (GOOG): $348.80 (-0.29%)
• Meta (META): $675.50 (-1.07%)
• Tesla (TSLA): $378.20 (-0.67%)

Market focus shifts to the after-hours Q1 earnings reports of the four giants (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta), with AI trading sentiment cooling; WSJ's report on OpenAI's revenue and user growth not meeting targets further drags down chip stocks, with NVIDIA leading the decline. Defensive stocks like Apple and Microsoft are relatively resilient, as investors make defensive allocations ahead of earnings reports.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Stocks show significant declines (overall downturn)

• Representative stocks: SanDisk down 6.34%, Micron Technology down 3.86%
• Driving factors: Dragged down by concerns over industry demand before the market opens, Seagate Technology's post-market earnings exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in the sector (Seagate up over 16%).

Semiconductor Sector shows divergence

• Representative stock: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) surged over 15% after hours
• Driving factors: Q1 revenue grew 12% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, and raised Q2 guidance, indicating accelerated demand recovery.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Seagate Technology (STX) - Q3 Earnings Significantly Exceed Expectations

Event Overview: Seagate Technology reported Q3 revenue of $3.11 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.95 billion; adjusted EPS was $4.10, far exceeding the expected $3.50, with an adjusted operating margin of 37.5% (expected 34.8%). The stock price surged over 16% after hours. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this performance validates the recovery in storage demand, especially strong demand for high-capacity hard drives driven by AI, boosting market confidence in the company's future profitability. Investment Insight: Short-term performance catalysts boost valuation, but attention is needed on the macro environment's impact on downstream demand.

2. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectations and Q2 Guidance Raised

Event Overview: NXP reported Q1 revenue of $3.181 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations; non-GAAP EPS was $3.05, a 16% year-on-year increase, influenced by one-time gains from the sale of MEMS sensor business, with GAAP EPS reaching $4.43. The company also provided better-than-expected guidance for Q2. The stock price surged over 15% after hours. Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that the comprehensive recovery in various end markets indicates accelerated recovery momentum in semiconductor demand, and the MEMS sale gains further highlight the earnings report. Investment Insight: Clear signals of demand recovery make it suitable to focus on opportunities for a bottom reversal in the semiconductor cycle.

3. Robinhood (HOOD) - Q1 Revenue Grows 15% Year-on-Year

Event Overview: Robinhood reported Q1 revenue of $1.067 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, but the stock price fell about 9% after hours. Market Interpretation: Revenue growth mainly came from the expansion of the trading platform, but the market is more concerned about changes in the proportion of cryptocurrency trading revenue and regulatory environment impacts. Investment Insight: Increased user activity on the platform is a long-term positive, but short-term adjustments in valuation need to be digested after earnings.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode report that the market is still influenced by macro and Middle Eastern situations in the short term, with unclear direction, but overall cautiously optimistic, expecting a bottoming rebound in the later part of this quarter; Bitcoin sentiment has shifted from fear to optimism, with over 70% believing it is undervalued, while Ethereum's short-term chips have decreased, and long-term holdings have increased, indicating a clearing of speculative funds and structural improvement.

2. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on platform X, predicting that market ETFs are expected to launch next week. Documents submitted by Roundhill indicate an effective date of May 5. The first batch of predicted market ETFs will bet on whether the Democrats or Republicans will win control of the House or Senate. Seyffart expects other issuers like Bitwise and GraniteShares to submit similar documents soon and may launch on the same or nearby dates.

3. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's seven-day average realized losses have reached $829 million, while realized profits are $566 million. Net realized profits briefly turned positive on April 9 but reversed again within two weeks. Darkfost also pointed out that on-chain data shows that the proportion of profitable supply is 64%, which has not reached the historical standard that supports sustained price increases.

4. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, Attorney General Joshua Kaul, and the head of the lottery department John Dillett in federal court in Wisconsin. This is the fifth state the CFTC has sued within a month, having previously filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York.

5. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Bitmine staked 107,992 ETH a few hours ago, worth $248 million. Currently, its total staked ETH has reached 3,923,389, valued at $8.98 billion.

6. Pump.fun posted on platform X that it has destroyed all previously repurchased PUMP tokens, valued at about $370 million, accounting for about 36% of the circulating supply. At the same time, Pump.fun has launched a one-year programmatic repurchase and destruction plan, using 50% of future income to buy PUMP tokens in the open market and immediately destroy them.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|----------------|-------| | 08:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders (March) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 08:30 | U.S. | Housing Starts/Building Permits (March) | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 14:00 | U.S. | FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 14:30 | U.S. | Powell's Press Conference | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 22:30 | U.S. | EIA Crude Oil Inventory | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

Wednesday (April 29)

1. Alphabe, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms to release Q1 earnings reports after hours ★★★★★ (The true start of earnings season, AI growth and profit performance will directly determine whether the market can continue its upward trend, with high volatility)

Thursday (April 30)

1. Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (UTC+8, 02:00) + Powell's press conference (02:30) ★★★★★

(Market highly focused on the dot plot and rate cut path, Powell may face his last important statement during his term)

1. March PCE Price Index (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator) ★★★★★
2. Apple to release Q1 earnings report after hours ★★★★★ (The last of the seven giants, AI and service business performance are highly anticipated)
3. Others: Eli Lilly, Western Digital before market; SanDisk after market

Friday (May 1)

1. U.S. Q1 GDP data (The first reflection of the actual impact of the Middle Eastern situation on the economy)
2. ISM Manufacturing PMI
3. Chevron, Exxon Mobil to release Q1 earnings before market.

*Overall operational advice: This week is a dual climax of earnings season + FOMC, with the earnings reports of the seven giants + PCE data as core drivers. If AI performance exceeds expectations, it will boost risk appetite; otherwise, it may be suppressed by hawkish statements/high inflation, focusing on structural opportunities in big tech.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that this week's FOMC decision will become a short-term market barometer. JPMorgan and UBS point out that although oil prices have risen sharply due to geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged. If the statement emphasizes "data dependence" and is not overly hawkish, it will alleviate market concerns about stagflation, benefiting the rebound of risk assets. In the cryptocurrency market, Glassnode and CoinShares data show that institutions are continuously flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs, with a cumulative inflow of over $4 billion in the past four weeks, indicating that long-term funds have not exited due to short-term fluctuations. Wall Street strategists emphasize that if Powell releases any dovish signals, BTC is expected to return above $78,000; conversely, inflation pressure from oil prices may lead to synchronized adjustments in cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks. Overall, the current environment is testing the logic of AI trading and the pricing ability of geopolitical risks, suggesting that investors pay attention to the volatility window after the Federal Reserve meeting and accumulate quality assets on dips.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and is not intended as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.