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Gate Research Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Strategizes New Entry into Prediction Markets

Gate Research Institute released a market forecast report titled "Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate's Layout for New Entry into Prediction Markets," which dissects trading volume, fee mechanisms, and market structure. The report points out that Polymarket's trading volume and active users continue to grow, and the platform has evolved from early on-chain experiments into an event trading market with real liquidity and revenue capabilities. Overall growth is driven by political, sports, and geopolitical events, and user retention may decline during the phase when hot topics fade.Fees and revenues are rising rapidly, driven on one hand by expanding trading demand and on the other by the expansion of the fee scope and changes in the fee structure. Revenue growth is directly related to rule adjustments. Platform trading is highly concentrated in a few high-interest sectors, and the long-tail market contributes limited overall liquidity.Gate has integrated a Polymarket entry in the app, providing two interaction modes: prediction mode and trading mode. Users can participate using USDT through their exchange accounts or use USDC on Polygon via a Web3 wallet. The report believes that prediction markets are evolving along two parallel paths: the integration of on-chain open infrastructure and centralized products. Its long-term potential depends on the continuous stability of event supply, regulatory environment, and user behavior.

Kalshi and Polymarket announce the launch of perpetual contract trading, as the prediction market platform accelerates its entry into the derivatives space

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi is preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading in the United States, expanding beyond its core prediction market business. According to insiders, the platform plans to initially introduce perpetual contracts linked to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.This move will put Kalshi in more direct competition with cryptocurrency platforms like Coinbase. Coinbase currently does not offer true perpetual contracts in the U.S., but has launched "perpetual-like" futures contracts with long durations and has expressed intentions to introduce more advanced derivatives products within the U.S.Kalshi holds several licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has recently been approved to offer margin trading, positioning it to enter the derivatives market. Insiders say the company expects to start with cryptocurrency-linked perpetual contracts and may expand this model to other asset classes in the future.Kalshi's competitor Polymarket also announced on X plans to launch perpetual futures on its platform, but did not disclose further details. A video in the tweet shows that users will be allowed to trade leveraged long and short positions on assets like gold, NVIDIA, BTC, AAPL, and indicates that registration will provide early access.

Bitfinex Report: The market value of tokenized commodities surpasses 7 billion USD, and the upgrade of stablecoin infrastructure accelerates implementation

Bitfinex released a report indicating that tokenized commodities are moving from early experimentation to practical application, becoming an important manifestation of the reconstruction of real-world assets (RWA) on the blockchain. The core of this shift is not to create new demand, but to reshape existing market infrastructure.Data shows that the total market value of tokenized commodities has reached approximately $7 billion, growing nearly 600% since the beginning of 2025. Current major participants include crypto-native investors and high-net-worth individuals. Amid increasing geopolitical volatility, tokenization is enhancing asset liquidity and risk management flexibility. Gold remains the primary entry point, with Tether Gold accounting for nearly 40% market share.The report points out that on-chain gold possesses characteristics such as real-time transfer and global auditability, making it more suitable as collateral compared to physical assets, and it can overcome traditional trading hours and settlement limitations. In addition to gold, tokenized commodities have expanded into areas such as oil, natural gas, and agricultural products, with soybeans and soybean oil each around $400 million, and green financing-related exposure around $850 million, indicating that this model has cross-category expansion potential.At the same time, the traceability of blockchain has also enhanced supply chain transparency, meeting regulatory and ESG requirements. Bitfinex believes that in the future, the focus of tokenization will shift from precious metals to industrial products such as copper and oil, achieving a transition from "product innovation" to "market infrastructure upgrade" by improving collateral efficiency, asset circulation speed, and transparency.

The American Bankers Association warns: Allowing stablecoins to pay interest will accelerate deposit outflows and severely impact community bank lending

According to an article in the American Bankers Association (ABA) Journal, experts including the ABA's chief economist point out that the recent research report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) on the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins raises the wrong questions and may mislead policymakers.The CEA report mainly explores "how prohibiting the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins will affect bank lending," concluding that banning yields would only increase bank lending by about $1.2 billion, with minimal impact.However, the ABA believes that the real policy concern is not the consequences of "prohibition," but the risks that may arise from "allowing" the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins: accelerating deposit outflows, allowing yields to stimulate households and businesses to move funds from bank deposits (especially community banks) to stablecoins, which would have a significant impact when the market size expands to $1-2 trillion. ABA analysis shows that loans in Iowa alone could decrease by $4.4 billion to $8.7 billion as a result.Impact on community banks: Deposit outflows will force community banks to replace funding with higher-cost wholesale financing (such as Federal Home Loan Bank advances), raising their funding costs and thereby reducing loans to local households and small businesses. It is not a harmless "reshuffling": The CEA believes that deposits are merely "reshuffled" within the banking system, with overall impact being minimal.However, the ABA points out that deposits flowing from community banks to a few large institutions or stablecoin reserve accounts will harm sectors that rely on relationship-based bank lending. The ABA believes that prohibiting the issuance of yield from payment stablecoins is a prudent protective measure that allows stablecoins to mature as a tool for payment innovation rather than becoming a source of economic risk that substitutes for insured deposits.

Bitcoin mining companies face more severe halving pressure in 2028, as the industry accelerates its transition towards energy and infrastructure

According to Cointelegraph, about two years away from Bitcoin's fifth halving, mining companies are facing a more challenging operating environment than the halving in 2024. At that time, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, compounded by record-high network hash rates, rising energy costs, and a more cautious capital market, significantly compressing the industry's profit margins.On the balance sheet front, several leading mining companies have begun to actively deleverage. MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 Bitcoins in March to reduce leverage, Riot Platforms sold over 3,700 in the first quarter, Cango sold 2,000 to repay Bitcoin collateralized debt, and Bitdeer's Bitcoin holdings dropped to zero on February 20.Industry insiders generally hold a cautious outlook. Cango's communications head, Juliet Ye, stated, "The middle ground has almost disappeared; operators with scale and diversified layouts can cope, while those lacking these conditions will struggle in the next halving." GoMining CEO Mark Zalan pointed out, "Capital discipline is now more important than maximizing hash power," and new deployment projects must meet stricter return thresholds.In terms of business models, pure block rewards have become "an increasingly thin business," with strong operators moving towards power and data center businesses, exploring additional revenue through grid peak shaving and waste heat utilization. Cango is transitioning to a dual-line model focusing on both computing power and AI workloads, with Ye stating, "The truly important facilities in five years will be those that can do multiple things simultaneously."

Analysis: In the 6 weeks of the US-Iran conflict, the Bitcoin market has shown divergence, with institutions continuing to buy while whales and mining companies accelerate their sell-off

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

Gate Institutional accelerates the construction of a multi-asset trading engine, with TradFi peak daily trading volume exceeding 20 billion USD

According to BeInCrypto, Gate Institutional is continuously improving its institutional-level trading infrastructure by integrating custody, trading, financing, and asset management capabilities to build a unified trading framework covering multiple assets and cross-markets. The platform's TradFi-related trading peak daily volume has surpassed $20 billion, and by combining interest-bearing collateral assets like GUSD, it further enhances capital utilization and yield capabilities.The report points out that Gate connects on-chain and traditional financial markets through the SuperLink architecture, achieving efficient capital allocation across multiple trading venues. Among them, the CrossEx model introduces a unified margin mechanism, improving capital usage efficiency across platforms; at the same time, Gate has continuously optimized infrastructure construction over the past year, with spot matching delays reduced by about 90% and contract depth data delays reduced by about 70%. Currently, Gate is accelerating the 3.0 architecture upgrade, expected to go live in Q2 2026, which will further optimize system performance under extreme market conditions, providing a faster and smoother order execution experience.In addition, the platform simultaneously offers institutional asset management tools, supporting net asset value tracking, redemption management, and profit distribution, enhancing capital operation efficiency and transparency.Currently, Gate Institutional has served various professional participants, including hedge funds, market makers, and asset management institutions, continuously strengthening its competitiveness in the institutional-level trading infrastructure field.
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