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According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo stated in a report that as the Middle East conflict enters its ninth week, central banks will assess its current impact and future expectations. This week, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. The analyst said, "This week, monetary policy decisions will become the main driving force for the market." It is expected that the aforementioned five central banks will keep interest rates unchanged, but their assessments of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict will be closely monitored.

BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan released a report stating that the total inflow of digital assets in the first quarter of 2026 is approximately $11 billion, annualized at about $44 billion, which is about one-third of the same period in 2025.Analysts Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and others pointed out that the inflow of funds from retail and institutional investors is low or even negative, with the inflow in the first quarter mainly coming from Bitcoin purchases by Strategy and concentrated crypto venture capital financing.The overall cryptocurrency market declined in the first quarter, with the total market capitalization dropping by about 20%, Bitcoin falling by about 23%, and ETH declining by over 30%. The sell-off was driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. Prices stabilized towards the end of the quarter, with Bitcoin consolidating around $70,000.The report noted that CME futures positions for Bitcoin and ETH weakened compared to 2024 and 2025, with net outflows for spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs occurring in the first quarter, mainly concentrated in January, while inflows for Bitcoin ETFs rebounded in March.Strategy remains the main buyer, primarily providing funding for Bitcoin purchases through equity issuance, while other corporate holders are relatively conservative, with some selling Bitcoin for buybacks. Bitcoin miners were net sellers in this quarter. The annualized pace of crypto venture capital funding is higher than in the previous two years, but it is concentrated in a few large transactions, with funds continuing to flow into infrastructure, stablecoins, payments, and tokenization.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

According to the BIT on Target weekly report, Bitcoin is entering a critical observation window. After several months of correction, BTC has recently rebounded slightly and is once again testing the previously lost key support range (approximately $65,881--$66,396), but the overall recovery foundation remains unstable, and the trend is relatively weak.The report points out that macro pressures continue to accumulate, liquidity is marginally weakening, and with key policy events approaching, the market pricing logic is gradually adjusting. Looking ahead to April, although it is historically considered a relatively strong month, the report believes it is not appropriate to simply extrapolate seasonal patterns. Whether April can achieve a phase of recovery depends on whether the funding situation, position structure, and external catalysts can resonate.

Bitcoin fell back after reaching $69,000 on Wednesday, following U.S. President Trump's speech that failed to assure an end to the Iran war, while WTI crude oil prices rose above $110, triggering market risk aversion. Meanwhile,the U.S. Treasury expressed concerns about the $2 trillion private credit market, and Blue Owl, which manages $30.7 billion in assets, announced that two of its private credit funds experienced "unconventional redemption requests," setting a withdrawal request limit of 5%. The number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose to 1.84 million.Bitcoin has maintained a support level of $66,000 this week but faces multiple selling pressures. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $450 million since March 24, with the industry holding $88 billion in Bitcoin assets, of which BlackRock's IBIT leads with $53.9 billion. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC in March, Riot Platforms transferred out 500 BTC for sale, and Nakamoto Holdings sold 284 BTC.The U.S. federal deficit is expected to reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, and the market believes that economic stimulus measures may provide support for Bitcoin prices in the medium term. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to buy Bitcoin, partially offsetting the aforementioned selling pressure.

According to Bloomberg, after gold prices experienced the largest sell-off in years, bargain buyers have started to enter the gold market. As of Thursday's close, gold prices had fallen 19% from the closing peak in January, approaching the 20% threshold that traditionally marks the beginning of a bear market. However, by Friday, buyers re-entered the market, pushing gold prices up by about 3%.George Efstathopoulos, a fund manager at Fidelity International, stated that this pullback presents a buying opportunity once tensions in the Middle East subside. Inflation risks, fiscal pressures, and bond credit issues remain structural positives for gold. Analysts also pointed out that the Iran conflict could trigger central banks to sell gold, or at least slow down their purchasing pace. Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, believes that given that central banks have been cornerstone buyers in this bull market, large-scale direct selling would have a more immediate impact on prices and a more destructive effect on market sentiment. However, for now, the broader trend may be a gradual slowing of central bank gold purchases rather than a complete shift to selling.

"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos indicated that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to remain silent this week. However, predictions force them to outline a path.Two former Fed chairs told me that they hope to avoid predicting interest rate cuts in the short term. Whether current officials will take the same stance has become the central focus of this meeting, as both hawks and doves may cling to their positions by pointing to the same shock.

Venus Protocol releases updates on the abnormal activity in the THE liquidity pool. In addition to previously suspending THE borrowing and withdrawals, the collateral factors (CF) for 7 markets have now been reduced to 0 as a precautionary measure against markets where a single user holds an excessively high proportion of collateral. The 7 markets are BCH, LTC, UNI, AAVE, FIL, TWT, and lisUSD, while all other markets remain unaffected and continue to operate normally.The preliminary assessment of the attack method indicates that the attacker began accumulating THE tokens slowly through normal deposit processes starting in June 2025, ultimately holding 84% of the cap (approximately 12.2 million THE). Yesterday, the hacker directly transferred THE tokens into the protocol contract, instantly increasing the supply and creating a massive amount of collateral. They then engaged in recursive price manipulation, taking advantage of the extremely low on-chain liquidity of THE combined with the TWAP oracle delay. The hacker initiated a loop: depositing THE, borrowing other assets, using the borrowed assets to buy more THE on-chain, and waiting for the TWAP oracle to update and drive up the price. Venus stated that it is committed to transparency and will release a complete report after the investigation concludes.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform, stating that a review of the trial case of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm revealed that Judge Failla used a self-driving car analogy in the lawsuit against Uniswap by user Nessa Risle, and seemed to show more sympathy towards the developers behind Uniswap, while being stricter with the developers of Tornado Cash.According to related materials shared by Eleanor Terrett, the judge's viewpoint was that holding software developers responsible for the misuse of neutral infrastructure by strangers would be illogical, considering Uniswap as "neutral infrastructure," while Tornado Cash was deemed to have "engaged in illegal financial activities" (continuing operations despite knowing it was being used for money laundering). This statement indicates that U.S. courts may reference whether developers are merely providing neutral tools rather than participating in illegal activities when determining liability related to decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure in the future.

Despite several positive developments for the cryptocurrency industry this week, such as Morgan Stanley choosing BNY Mellon as the custodian for its spot Bitcoin ETF exposure, Kraken being approved for access to the Federal Reserve's payment system, and OKX receiving a $25 billion valuation from ICE, Bitcoin briefly approached $74,000 before falling back below $69,000, with the total market capitalization evaporating by approximately $110 billion.Market analysis suggests that macro factors such as a stronger dollar, rising oil prices, and changes in interest rate expectations are suppressing the performance of risk assets, preventing the crypto market from maintaining its upward momentum. On-chain data shows that short-term holders transferred over 27,000 BTC (approximately $1.8 billion) to exchanges to take profits when the price was close to $74,000, exacerbating short-term selling pressure. Despite the short-term bearish trend, there are some positive signals in the funding landscape, as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $787 million last week, marking the first positive inflow since mid-January of this year, indicating that some institutional funds are refocusing on the crypto market.

The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Iran is prepared to abandon its nuclear program, provided that the United States offers a satisfactory alternative.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the weak market liquidity over the weekend amplifying selling pressure, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $81,000. In addition, market participants pointed out that the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown, and cautious sentiment within the cryptocurrency market are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets.Market data shows that the price of Bitcoin has dropped about 2.2% in the past 24 hours. Weekend trading volumes typically decline, making prices more susceptible to rapid fluctuations. The market is still in a range-bound trend, with traders focusing on whether Bitcoin can attract a new round of buying in the $80,000-$82,000 range; otherwise, if selling pressure continues over the weekend, prices may further decline.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi recently published a post regarding the viewpoint that "the market crash on 10/11 was triggered by Binance and Ethena." He stated that this narrative is difficult to establish in terms of timeline, market dissemination path, and evidence. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin had already bottomed out about 30 minutes before the anomaly in USDe appeared on Binance, indicating that the causal relationship is clearly inverted. Additionally, the deviation in USDe price only occurred on Binance and did not spread to other trading platforms, which cannot explain the large-scale liquidation across the entire market and is fundamentally different from events like Terra that caused global balance sheet shocks.Haseeb believes that a more reasonable explanation is the combination of multiple factors: Trump's tariff comments disturbed the market on Friday evening, the Binance API anomaly prevented market makers from hedging across platforms, liquidation and the ADL mechanism amplified volatility, and the lack of traditional financial-style circuit breakers and self-stabilizing mechanisms in the crypto market ultimately caused the market to evolve along an unfavorable path. He emphasized that there is no simple and conspiratorial "single culprit" for 10/11; although the market suffered a heavy blow, it has not been permanently damaged in the long run and only needs time to restore liquidity and confidence.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that this will determine how quickly we can raise interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that inflation is declining and all other factors are just noise.

The CEO of Charles Schwab, Rick Wurster, stated in an interview that the company is optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2026. Despite the recent market downturn, the macro environment for Bitcoin will become increasingly favorable due to factors such as quantitative easing policies, the Federal Reserve's bond purchasing program, and weak demand for U.S. government bonds.It is reported that Charles Schwab currently supports the purchase of Solana and Micro Solana futures products, and plans to launch spot cryptocurrency trading services in the first half of 2026.

Presto Research researcher Rick Maeda stated, "Bitcoin's return above $90,000 is primarily driven by technical factors rather than any single new catalyst. The $90,000 level was a significant resistance point, and once Bitcoin stabilizes above it, it is likely to trigger short covering and momentum-driven buying."Kronos Research Chief Information Officer Vincent Liu also expressed a similar view, stating that after a period of consolidation, Bitcoin rebounded at a technical support level, "the key price level has reverted to a support level."Bitrue Research Director Andri Fauzan Adziima noted that Bitcoin's upward momentum reflects technical relief from options expiration and the correlation driven by altcoins. He also added that due to over $1 billion in ETF outflows related to tax loss harvesting and broader de-risking, Bitcoin "has basically fluctuated within the range of $86,500 to $90,000 in December."