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According to Jinshi reports, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian stated that the price shocks caused by the Middle East war have pushed market expectations toward an environment of "interest rates remaining at higher levels for a longer period," affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan. He pointed out that the current situation, accompanied by negative demand shocks from "second-round effects," poses a potential risk of spreading to financial instability, highlighting the uncertainty of the outlook.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo stated in a report that as the Middle East conflict enters its ninth week, central banks will assess its current impact and future expectations. This week, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. The analyst said, "This week, monetary policy decisions will become the main driving force for the market." It is expected that the aforementioned five central banks will keep interest rates unchanged, but their assessments of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict will be closely monitored.

According to Bloomberg, political groups associated with the cryptocurrency industry have accumulated nearly $180 million in funding reserves ahead of this year's U.S. midterm elections, surpassing the funding levels of some major Republican super PACs.The report states that most of this funding has been carried over from last year, with the vast majority held by Fairshake. Fairshake's main backers include Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and Andreessen Horowitz.

According to analyst Markus Thielen, the demand structure for Bitcoin is gradually repairing. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to increase its holdings, providing stable buying support, Coinbase Premium continues to rise, and the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $664 million in a single day, the highest level since mid-January.Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and U.S. spot demand are forming a synergy, combined with the continuous return of stablecoin funds, liquidity support is gradually strengthening. Analysts point out that the market may be building a new range of fluctuations; if the above trends continue, the probability of prices moving towards the upper end of the range is increasing, but the market will not rise linearly.

With time still remaining until the U.S. midterm elections, Trump's super PAC raised $35.6 million in March, bringing its campaign fund reserves to $550 million, setting a record for presidential midterm election cycles. It is attempting to maintain the Republican majority in Congress amid a tough election battle.According to Federal Election Commission documents, long-time Republican donor Diane Hendricks—who spoke at the Republican National Convention in 2024—contributed the majority of this month's fundraising, donating $25 million. Venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $3 million. The California-based tribal organization Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation donated $2 million. A subsidiary of prison operator GEO Group Inc. (a federal contractor whose clients include Immigration and Customs Enforcement) donated $1 million.As a large influx of funds arrives, polls show that Trump's voter coalition for 2024 is fracturing. Historically, the party in power at the White House tends to lose House seats in midterm elections, and Democrats are increasingly seeing a path to reclaim the Senate.

According to official Twitter news, B.AI has released its latest weekly report, disclosing several important advancements in developer ecosystem and financial infrastructure development.In terms of products, B.AI has officially launched the OpenClaw automatic configuration script, introduced the open-source AI coding assistant BAI Code, and completed Stripe integration, laying a solid foundation for the ecosystem's payment and development experience; in terms of wallet support, new multi-link access for KuCoin Web3 and Trust Wallet has been added.With the number of users surpassing 1 million, B.AI is continuously expanding its developer toolchain and financial connectivity capabilities for autonomous agents through deep cooperation with platforms such as KuCoin and Symbiosis, aiming to build the core AI infrastructure for the digital economy era.

According to the Hong Kong Commercial Daily, in response to the increasingly heated topic of "Middle Eastern funds flowing in" to Hong Kong, the Deputy Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Chen Haolian, stated that there are indeed more clients inquiring about how to transfer funds to Hong Kong or open accounts in Hong Kong, and that there is a two-way exchange between Hong Kong and the Middle East.He revealed that a licensed virtual insurance company in Hong Kong has expanded its business in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and that tokenized funds from Hong Kong have landed on Middle Eastern wealth management platforms. Additionally, Asian funds can purchase Islamic bond ETFs in Hong Kong, providing Middle Eastern investors with a familiar and trustworthy market.Chen Haolian emphasized that the Hong Kong government will actively develop financial technology and digital assets, and is currently formulating legislative proposals for the licensing system of digital asset trading and custody services, aiming to establish a complete regulatory framework to develop Hong Kong into a global hub for digital asset innovation.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

Yesterday's data showed that the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in the United States was $663.9 million, with IBIT having a net inflow of $284 million, FBTC a net inflow of $163.4 million, and ARKB a net inflow of $117.9 million. This data set a record for the largest single-day inflow this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that a rapid resolution of the situation in the Middle East could allow the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the longer the Middle East war drags on, the greater the risks to inflation and employment will be.

According to the Financial Times, an analysis of campaign finance records shows that the cryptocurrency and AI industries have raised approximately $250 million over the past year to support congressional candidates in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November.A16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz donated a total of $25 million in February to the pro-AI Super PAC "Leading The Future." The organization has raised about $75 million from billionaires, including the two mentioned above and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman; when including "dark money" non-profits that do not disclose their donors, that figure rises to $140 million. The largest Super PAC in the crypto industry, Fairshake, has raised over $134 million on its own.In January, Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street firm previously led by current U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and now managed by his son Brandon, which has a partnership with Tether, donated $10 million to the pro-crypto Super PAC Fellowship; the parent company of the major crypto platform, Anchor Labs, also added a $1 million donation to Fellowship PAC. Elon Musk donated $1.6 million to his America PAC in March, significantly reducing his involvement compared to 2024, when he invested over $250 million across various PACs.Anthropic has pledged $20 million to the non-profit Public First Action, which has redirected some of the funds to a Super PAC to influence the 2026 elections. The company holds a relatively unique position in the industry, explicitly calling for the establishment of strict federal AI safety regulations, which diverges from the majority of participants in the AI industry.

According to The Hill, the White House seems eager to push for a resolution to the dispute between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector, a dispute that has hindered Senate negotiations on the legislation since the beginning of this year. Key officials both inside and outside the U.S. government—from Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen to White House crypto advisor Patrick Witte, and former head of AI and crypto affairs David Sacks—have recently called for the passage of the bill.At the same time, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report that countered the relevant concerns of the banking industry. However, it is still unclear whether the White House's push is sufficient to overcome the issues plaguing the bill, which are not limited to the narrow industry disputes that have dominated discussions over the past three months. Christopher Neuber, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, stated in an interview, "From a timing perspective, their judgment is reasonable—if Congress has the opportunity to push the market structure bill through, now is that opportunity."

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve pointed out in the Beige Book released on April 16 that economic activity in most regions of the United States continues to grow at a moderate to slight pace amid a new round of uncertainty triggered by the war in Iran and rising energy costs. Overall price increases remain moderate, but energy and fuel costs have risen significantly across all 12 Federal Reserve districts. The report indicates that the Middle East conflict is seen as a major source of uncertainty, increasing the complexity of businesses' decisions regarding hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The data is as of April 6 and reflects the initial impact of the war on the U.S. economy.

According to Jinshi reports, the International Monetary Fund stated that if the Middle East war continues, asset prices may further decline significantly.

According to Jinshi reports, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that in light of the Middle East conflict causing turmoil in financial markets, a cautious response is necessary.

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau and cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that Bitcoin's current recovery is relatively weak. The geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures caused by the Middle East war will dominate the market trends in the second quarter of 2026, with interest rate cuts expected no earlier than the third or fourth quarter. He pointed out that for BTC to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weakening economic data.Currently, BTC is priced at approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000, and still operating below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, BTC rose above $73,000 on April 6 but fell back due to the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz. There are internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding interest rate cuts in 2026, and CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the meetings on April 29 and June 17 is over 98%.

According to CoinDesk, affected by the situation in the Middle East, Binance is offering its employees in the UAE the option to temporarily relocate to Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok.A Binance spokesperson stated, "In light of the recent regional tensions, we are providing our employees with the option for temporary relocation as a precautionary measure prioritizing employee welfare, to offer flexibility and support during uncertain times." The spokesperson also mentioned that many employees are currently choosing to stay in the UAE, and the company's operations in the UAE remain normal.It is reported that Binance has about 1,000 employees in the UAE, accounting for 20% of its global workforce, and the company's global operations are also supported from Abu Dhabi. This relocation proposal comes after the signing of a ceasefire agreement. The regional conflict, which lasted for about six weeks, has impacted business activities in the UAE. Since the outbreak of the conflict in late February, the UAE has intercepted hundreds of missiles and drones, with another interception occurring on April 8.The conflict in the Middle East has affected several cryptocurrency and major events in the UAE: the TOKEN2049 Dubai summit has been postponed to 2027, the TON Gateway has been canceled due to safety and travel concerns, the Middle East Energy Dubai Exhibition and the Dubai International Boat Show have been postponed, and the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia F1 events, which have sponsorship exposure value for the crypto industry, are also facing cancellation.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials believe that the developments in the Middle East have increased economic risks.