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BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

According to market news, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering around $77,800, and the upward trend that started at $65,000 since Wednesday has clearly slowed down; ETH is reported at $2,300, with a 24-hour decline of about 0.8%, underperforming BTC.The market pressure mainly comes from two aspects: first, Japan's corporate service price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in March, exceeding expectations, and core inflation is also accelerating upward. The market expects the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting, and a stronger yen could trigger the unwinding of carry trades in global risk assets; second, the ongoing war in Iran continues to disrupt oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 40% to $96 per barrel since the outbreak of the war. The U.S. Pentagon warns that clearing mines will take at least six months, and global inflationary pressures may persist, further compressing the Federal Reserve's space for interest rate cuts.

According to Santiment monitoring, small retail traders are actively selling their holdings of Ethereum (ETH), with wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less having reduced their holdings by a total of 1,791 ETH (approximately 4.16 million USD) in the past two days. The market generally views the 17% increase since March 29 as a "Bull Trap," and this sentiment has actually strengthened the likelihood of a continued bullish momentum.

Bitcoin is approaching the key resistance level of $75,000, with several analysts stating that this level could mark the turning point for the market from consolidation to a new upward trend.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, pointed out that if BTC can effectively hold above $75,000, it would signify a structural breakthrough and could attract new funds into the market; however, if it fails to maintain this level, it may form a "bull trap," although there is still strong support around $65,000.Coinmetro CEO Kevin Murcko stated that round numbers like $75,000 are usually areas where traders concentrate their bets, making it easy to trigger profit-taking and buying-selling discrepancies.Analysts further noted that if a breakout is confirmed, BTC is expected to rise to the $85,000 range, but the upward potential still depends on factors such as the macro environment, ETF fund inflows, and market liquidity.Meanwhile, there are also views that $75,000 is more of a psychological barrier, and true structural confirmation may require holding at a higher level.

10x Research released a market analysis on platform X indicating that Bitcoin is brewing an important market breakthrough. Its internal trend model has already captured this turning signal in advance, and current market sentiment, positions, and capital flow data are validating the changes in market structure.Although the market is generally focused on the potential threat of quantum computing to the security of crypto assets, this risk is expected to manifest only between 2030 and 2035. Currently, the technical aspect has shifted to a constructive range, with multiple Bitcoin trading signals simultaneously presenting high-probability opportunities, indicating that short-term upward momentum is accumulating. However, 10x Research believes the more critical question is whether this market will evolve into a new bull market and challenge historical highs.

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to Jinshi News, CITIC Securities pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that 178,000 new non-farm jobs were added in March, exceeding expectations, partly driven by the repair of short-term disturbances. Although the structure of employment growth has improved compared to February, many industries still show low growth. If the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, it is expected to put pressure on the global supply chain, and U.S. employment may still face pressure in the future. Currently, the upward risk of inflation is squeezing the Federal Reserve's space for interest rate cuts.

According to Jinshi reports, CICC's research report believes that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, with the risk of "inflation" taking precedence. The market expects changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, bringing selling pressure to gold ETFs that were heavily increased last year, while liquidity shocks are also contributing to short-term corrections through the futures and options markets.Currently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be entering a critical window period, with oil prices facing a choice between rising and falling. The pricing focus in the gold market may shift to assessing the impact of supply shocks on "stagflation," and the already priced-in expectations for interest rate hikes may need to be revised.Looking ahead, CICC believes that whether it is a pullback in oil prices after a geopolitical downgrade, a return to a loose monetary policy direction, or intensified supply shocks increasing recession pressures and triggering the safe-haven value of gold, there may be upward correction space for both gold investment demand and prices.

On-chain data platform Glassnode posted on X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the cost range for new investors ($60,000 - $70,000). Data shows that there has been a certain degree of accumulation within this range, but the overall scale is still below the typical levels that have historically driven strong rebounds, indicating relatively weak chip density.The current accumulation structure has constructive significance in form, but is still insufficient in strength and has not yet formed a clear upward momentum signal.

Crypto market analyst Axel released a latest report stating that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs (in the U.S. and elsewhere) have seen a cumulative net inflow of 62,986 BTC (approximately $11.3 billion), bringing total holdings to 1.327 million BTC.During the same period, short-term holders continued to realize losses on exchanges, with daily outflows from the loss side averaging 15,500 BTC. Axel pointed out that current institutional buying has surpassed retail selling pressure, providing support for prices, but the market is showing a divergent pattern—short-term participants are still selling at a loss, while ETF funds are gradually absorbing supply. To maintain the upward momentum, prices need to stabilize above $70,000, and ETF fund inflows must remain positive.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's performance last week showed significant divergence. Although it briefly rose to a high of $76,000, it subsequently fell back due to the impact of PPI data, statements from the Federal Reserve, and tensions in the Middle East, with a weekend low of around $68,000.Despite the increased short-term volatility, Bitcoin overall remains above its opening price, while the S&P 500 index has shown more fluctuations. Market analysis suggests that if bulls have enough confidence to push the price above the $72,000 range, there may be an "air gap" between $72,000 and $82,000 above, which is a relatively sparse area of transactions and resistance, allowing for a potential rapid price increase.The current market focus is on whether macro data and geopolitical situations will continue to disrupt the performance of risk assets, and whether Bitcoin can re-establish sustained upward momentum to return to previous high ranges.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast, increased the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next, raised the unemployment rate forecast for next year, and raised the long-term federal funds rate expectation.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the trend of Ethereum's open interest indicates a continuous inflow of liquidity into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum's upward trend rather than short-term fluctuations.

According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum has recently shown strong rebound momentum, with several technical and on-chain indicators suggesting it may challenge the $2,800 mark in the short term.On Monday, ETH trading volume increased, breaking the previous bearish flag on the daily chart and reclaiming key moving averages, including the 20-day EMA ($2,072) and the 50-day EMA ($2,210). Technically, the symmetrical triangle pattern indicates that if the price breaks through the upper boundary, the theoretical upside could reach $2,850, corresponding to the 200-day EMA.At the same time, the next resistance level is around $2,500 near the 100-day EMA. On-chain data shows that resistance for Ethereum is concentrated in the $2,770--$2,880 range, where over 7.9 million ETH are held long-term. Additionally, the cost basis distribution indicates that there is an accumulation of over 3 million ETH near the $2,800 mark, providing a potential pathway for the price to challenge this level in the short term. Considering multiple factors, $2,800 may become a key target for Ethereum in the next phase.

Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbole stated that Bloomberg has reaffirmed its prediction: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000------a price level not seen since mid-2020. Industry observers believe this prediction is overly absurd.However, on the largest crypto options trading platform Deribit, about $800 million in open positions are concentrated on $20,000 put options, betting that the price will fall below that level. This is the fourth most popular bearish bet on the platform. This indicates that some traders are preparing for a possible crash. But Deribit stated that not all positions are direct bets against a price crash.Deribit’s Global Retail Sales Head Sidrah Fariq said, "Most positions are more like selling put options rather than directional long hedges. Traders often sell out-of-the-money put options because the probability of reaching those levels is low." Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining around $70,000 even as crude oil prices rebounded, pushing benchmark oil prices close to $100 in the early session, shaking traditional markets. Ethereum, XRP, and SOL have also remained strong, while HYPE tokens rose about 10% within 24 hours.Analysts say that excessive leverage is being cleared from the Bitcoin market, paving the way for price increases. Diana Pires, Vice President of Sales at crypto platform sFOX, stated in an email, "From a market structure perspective, this consolidation could be constructive, as reducing leveraged positions often lays a more stable foundation for the next wave of movement once clearer macro catalysts emerge."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the current inflation outlook is uncertain and there are upside risks.

According to market news, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above $72,000, while Ethereum has seen a slight increase. The market has entered a consolidation phase after the previous breakout. Although Bitcoin has successfully stabilized above the $70,000 level, which has been a resistance point multiple times, it has not yet shown the expected rapid advance towards $80,000.Expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East have boosted risk assets. If there are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that drive up inflation, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain a tighter interest rate policy. Derivatives data shows that bullish sentiment remains moderately strong, with Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) rising to about 680,000 BTC, reaching a nearly two-week high, while open interest in gold-linked tokens XAUT and PAXG futures continues to decline, indicating that some funds may be flowing back into mainstream crypto assets after the slowdown in gold's upward momentum.In the options market, demand for high strike call options has increased, and the 30-day implied volatility remains stable overall, reflecting relatively calm market sentiment.

Coinbase Institutional posted on social media that BTC options market data shows the most concentrated support cluster is around $60,000, while the first dense resistance range is around $82,000.This means that $82,000 is the first threshold to open further upward space, while $60,000 is the key support to prevent accelerated downward movement. Additionally, the negative gamma band is concentrated in the $60,000-$70,000 area, while positive gamma is clustered above $85,000 and $90,000.This indicates two market tendencies:A downward move to $60,000 may accelerate.An upward move to $90,000 may enter a consolidation phase.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently mentioned that the market size of dollar stablecoins is expected to expand to $3 trillion in the coming years. In the long term, the penetration trend of the digital dollar continues, and the overall narrative is leaning positive. However, the latest data shows that short-term momentum has weakened: the growth of stablecoins has noticeably slowed, showing signs of stagnation in phases.This decline will not only suppress Bitcoin but also pose significant resistance to the entire crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins are the most important liquidity infrastructure in the crypto market; a stagnation in supply expansion often means that funds are being withdrawn from the chain and flowing back to fiat currency, rather than remaining in the crypto market for continued rotation. If stablecoins maintain a high net outflow, the liquidity environment for Bitcoin is likely to remain tight in the short term, making recovery difficult. Even if the market structure bill passes smoothly, if real demand and capital inflows do not accelerate again, the supply of stablecoins may not immediately return to an expansionary track.