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QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

QCP stated that BTC rebounded from an overnight low near $75,000 to around $78,000, but this rise seems more like a correction after a calming of risk sentiment rather than a new phase for the market.The report pointed out that Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran has reduced expectations for short-term escalation of conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and Iran's position is still unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, creating a coexistence of inflationary pressure and slowing growth. QCP also noted that BTC's open interest has significantly rebounded, and the funding rate remains negative, indicating that shorts are still increasing their positions during the rise; the options market overall is still pricing for volatility rather than a continuation of trends.

QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

QCP's weekly report pointed out that against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil price volatility, Bitcoin remains around $67,000, demonstrating a certain level of resilience; Ethereum shows steady performance, while altcoins lag behind.Market positions have been cleared, selling pressure has eased, and short-term hedging demand remains active, indicating that the market is no longer overly crowded. There is indeed support, but it is relatively limited. There is buying support for Bitcoin, but a comprehensive chase for higher prices has not yet emerged.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to QCP Market analysis, after Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz passed, the planned actions were postponed, giving the market a temporary respite in risk appetite.BTC briefly fell below $70,000 over the weekend, but performed better than previous safe-haven sell-offs. QCP believes that, against the backdrop of U.S. debt exceeding $39 trillion, rising stagflation pressures, and increasing discussions on de-dollarization, BTC may be gradually breaking away from the "high beta risk asset" pricing framework.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 20.5 BTC (approximately 1.52 million USD) to QCP Capital; another 1.02 BTC (approximately 75,900 USD) was transferred to a new wallet address.

According to Arkham data, at 19:39, 100.14 WBTC (worth approximately 7.35 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0x6086...) to QCP Capital.

QCP released the latest market report indicating that against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market has shown relative strength, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through $74,000 and $2,270 respectively, while stocks and gold assets remain under pressure during the same period. The report believes that this trend is reinforcing the narrative of "digital safe-haven assets" and "geopolitical hedging tools."QCP stated that tensions related to Iran may drive an increase in on-chain activity and cross-border liquidity demand. Data shows that last week, the supply of USDC rose to a historical high of approximately $81.1 billion, with overall stablecoin supply increasing simultaneously, indicating new inflows into the cryptocurrency market amid global uncertainty.Institutional demand has also shown signs of recovery. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETF recording inflows for the third consecutive week, totaling approximately $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings.In the options market, spot prices are approaching the important end-of-month strike price BTC-27MAR26-75K-C (approximately 8,000 contracts). The report notes that if the price effectively breaks through $75,000, it may trigger a rally driven by the Gamma effect, while $74,500 remains a key short-term resistance level, with a dense area of short liquidations above.

According to QCP Capital analysis, under the geopolitical shock triggered by the Iran conflict, BTC briefly fell below $63,000 before rebounding to around $70,000, showing relative resilience.The volatility in the options market has retreated to the mid-50s, with risk reversals still in negative territory, indicating continued demand for downside protection. On a macro level, the stock market is under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and expectations for interest rate cuts have been pushed back, reflecting stagflation characteristics in the market. In terms of oil prices, Brent crude briefly surged to $120 before retreating, with the IEA planning to coordinate the release of 300-400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Currently, BTC is more of a liquidity-sensitive macro tool rather than a high-beta risk asset. The market is focused on today's U.S. CPI data, which may determine whether expectations for interest rate cuts can be reignited.

QCP's analysis states that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to rising energy prices, with Brent crude oil reaching $83 per barrel and Dutch natural gas prices increasing by 50% to $55, severely impacting the global supply chain. This conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities of the AI and technology sectors. South Korea, as a major semiconductor producer, has seen its KOSPI index drop 20% from its peak, with major constituents Samsung and SK Hynix severely affected by the disruption in energy supply.Notably, amidst market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, potentially signaling a shift in risk appetite. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in the coming week, but due to the global dependence on chips, semiconductors, and AI-driven growth, it is anticipated that all parties will jointly pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with China urging Iran to keep the strait open.

QCP Group released the latest analysis indicating that Bitcoin fell below $65,000 in the early morning session today, triggering approximately $230 million in long liquidations. The market is under pressure as it digests a new round of tariff risks and broader geopolitical uncertainties. President Trump’s move to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% further exacerbates the cooling of macro risk appetite.With Bitcoin prices still significantly below the average mining cost, pressure on mining companies is evident, prioritizing liquidity over hoarding strategies. Bitdeer has liquidated its Bitcoin reserves, becoming the latest signal of miners de-risking and partially shifting towards the AI sector. However, the market is not entirely bearish; this round of liquidations has been noticeably milder compared to earlier this year, with the market's reaction to news being more restrained.Although the options market is still pricing in downside risks, indicating a cleaner position structure, ETF fund flows resemble basis trade liquidations rather than a complete withdrawal, reflecting an adjustment in the funding structure rather than a total exit from the market.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Bhutan government-associated address sent 100 BTC to QCP Capital, worth 6.77 million USD.

The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 100 bitcoins to QCP Capital, worth approximately 6.77 million USD.

QCP Director Elbert Iswara stated in a Money FM 89.3 radio program that the recent significant fluctuations in Bitcoin resemble a liquidity reset rather than a structural collapse. Although the price briefly fell to $60,033, the subsequent rebound indicates that long-term investors and institutional demand still exist.He pointed out that the current Bitcoin trend is mainly influenced by the macroeconomic environment, while factors such as ETF fund outflows, derivative positions, and leverage liquidations have exacerbated the volatility. Iswara suggested that investors pay attention to the key price range of $60,000 to $65,000, ETF fund flows, leverage liquidation situations, and changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks, and believes that Bitcoin should be regarded as a high beta asset for risk management in the short term.

QCP's analysis states that Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from last week's lows, with the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recording a net inflow of $145 million yesterday, continuing the momentum of last Friday's $371 million inflow, indicating that institutional demand is cautiously returning. The spot Ethereum ETF also reversed its downward trend, recording a net inflow of $57 million yesterday after three consecutive days of net outflows. Meanwhile, Tom Lee's BitMine continues to increase its holdings in Ethereum, stabilizing market confidence in Ethereum.On the macro front, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran seem to have eased, while lower-than-expected employment data has led traders to anticipate a possible interest rate cut in March. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the extreme fear zone at 9, indicating that market sentiment is still fragile.

QCP Capital stated in an official channel that, on a macro level, the clouds of a government shutdown in the U.S. have dissipated, but the key takeaway is that fiscal standoffs may quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, which means another deadline risk still exists. Additionally, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, crude oil prices are rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium, but news on the diplomatic front continues to limit its upside potential.Domestically in the U.S., the political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve is heating up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which reintroduces uncertainty. If investors begin to bet on the increased likelihood of larger rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets and weaken the dollar, but it will also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a quicker reduction of the balance sheet, which will directly impact the underlying liquidity mechanisms of the repo market.A disturbing reminder is that pressure may suddenly emerge when reserves are short at critical junctures. The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even amidst spot rebounds, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, and at-the-money option volatility remains elevated, with the term structure trending towards a slight spot premium, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for the risk of recent price gaps. The downward skew has steepened sharply, and butterfly spread options remain expensive, reflecting that demand is concentrated on convexity protection against a collapse.From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can be held and positions are rebuilt with funding rates returning to normal, this level seems to be a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. If it fails to hold, market sentiment may quickly shift to a defensive stance.