us-iran

According to PRNewswire, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated that since the US-Iran conflict, ETH has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 1,696 basis points, becoming the best-performing single asset globally, aside from crude oil, and has acquired the attributes of a "wartime store of value" asset.Tom Lee added that as Wall Street accelerates the promotion of on-chain tokenization and the demand for public, neutral blockchains from the Agentic AI system continues, Ethereum will continue to benefit. His basic expectation is that we are currently in the final stage of a "mini crypto winter."

Government sources have confirmed that the talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad are "highly likely to achieve a breakthrough," with a delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital tonight. Earlier today, the Iranian Foreign Minister had a phone conversation with the Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, both of whom confirmed this news. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that the two sides exchanged views on the developments in the regional situation, the ceasefire, and the ongoing diplomatic efforts in the context of U.S.-Iran engagement.

According to Gate market data, the S&P 500 index futures have recovered some of their losses, currently down by 0.3%. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated that he would extend the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

According to CCTV International News citing American media reports, U.S. President Trump said today (April 19) in an interview, "For security reasons, U.S. Vice President Pence will not attend the U.S.-Iran negotiations again."According to Trump, U.S. presidential envoy Hook and Kushner will arrive in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the evening of April 20, Eastern Time, to participate in the U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for April 21.

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT has been rising almost daily for the past three weeks, increasing by about 3.5% again, and has accumulated a rise of about 19% since the market sell-off triggered by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. As concerns about geopolitical impacts have eased, fund sentiment has clearly recovered, driving Bitcoin-related ETFs to continue strengthening.

According to Cointelegraph, during the US-Iran conflict, UAE investors chose to buy the dip in AI and digital assets rather than reducing their overall positions.eToro data shows that in the first quarter, UAE users increased their holdings in several software and AI infrastructure stocks that had significantly pulled back in price. eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert stated that the behavior of UAE investors is driven by long-term themes rather than risk aversion, with the most obvious signals appearing in the AI infrastructure and software sector—ServiceNow (+125%), Super Micro Computer (+65%), Adobe (+54%), and Oracle (+38%) all saw significant increases in holdings against a backdrop of market pressure.In terms of crypto assets, Strategy Inc. remains the eighth highest held stock by UAE investors, indicating a continued allocation to crypto-related assets. Deutsche Bank's report on April 13 indicated that this conflict is more likely to strengthen rather than weaken the region's demand for AI, cybersecurity, and sovereign digital infrastructure; however, it also cited reports that the Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain have been attacked, and the planned 1GW Stargate park in Abu Dhabi is also under threat.The report also noted that sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf region manage approximately $5 trillion in assets by 2025, with Abu Dhabi-related institutions being one of the most active sources of funding in the global AI sector. Local crypto businesses in Dubai are operating normally. HashKey MENA Managing Director Ben El-Baz told Cointelegraph that business remains normal, relying on cloud trading and custody systems; Binance also confirmed that the vast majority of employees chose to stay, but the Token2049 Dubai event has been postponed to 2027.The Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) continues to advance its activity-type regulatory framework. VARA Market Assurance Director Sean McHugh stated that during times of pressure, serious market participants seek the clearest regulatory environment rather than the most lenient jurisdictions.

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

According to on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), a newly created wallet (bullseye123) spent $40,000 betting on the prediction market Polymarket that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement before April 15 or 18. Currently, this position has an unrealized loss of about $34,000, with a loss rate of 85%.

According to Jinshi reports, the failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran has led the bond market to focus on inflation issues and strengthened expectations that interest rates will remain high. Investors in the U.S. Treasury market face the risk that rising energy costs may exacerbate price pressures, delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut actions.Last Friday, the monthly increase in the U.S. March CPI reached its highest level since 2022, prompting the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to exceed 4.3%, with yields further rising by 3 basis points on Monday to reach 4.35%.

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Ahead of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend, oil prices have risen but remain below $100 per barrel. Emmanuel Belostreino, head of global crude oil and geopolitical market data at Kpler, stated, "The outcome of the negotiations, especially whether a viable shipping navigation agreement can be formed, is a key variable in determining whether the current backlog situation can begin to ease."In early European trading, both WTI and Brent crude oil continued to rise, currently reported at $99.7 per barrel and $97.6 per barrel, respectively. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen, and supply disruptions keep the market tense. Iran's attacks on Saudi Arabia's main export route (the East-West pipeline) have resulted in a daily reduction of approximately 700,000 barrels in the pipeline's delivery capacity.

According to a report by Turkey's Anadolu Agency, sources from the Pakistani government stated that the US-Iran delegations will hold "direct" negotiations in Islamabad, aimed at reaching a "permanent ceasefire" agreement. The talks, scheduled to begin on Saturday, may extend beyond one day. Pakistan is preparing to host these negotiations. The meeting will take place at a heavily guarded military location, organized by the Pakistani military. According to sources, there is no fixed timetable for the negotiations, which will include both direct and indirect contacts between the delegations. "Both sides will also hold face-to-face talks and separate meetings with the Pakistani side." Given the "complexity of the issues," discussions may last "several days." Sources indicated that, for security reasons, the direct negotiations may not exceed two to three days.