cycle

As market sentiment warms and liquidity returns, AI technology is accelerating its leap from a mere "analytical tool" to a core "trading hub," deeply reconstructing the underlying logic of the financial market's game.At 8 PM on April 28, a cutting-edge roundtable discussion focusing on "AI Trading" will be held in Space. At that time, several industry experts will engage in in-depth discussions from the perspectives of AI infrastructure evolution, trading structure reshaping, and financial paradigm shifts, jointly analyzing whether AI's deep integration into the trading process is becoming the true starting point driving a new cycle of evolution in Web3, guiding participants to accurately capture real Alpha opportunities with long-term value in a market landscape full of uncertainties.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 (UTC+8) on the theme "After BTC Breaks $78,000: Geopolitical Downgrade + Regulatory Breakthrough, Is a New Narrative Coming to the Crypto Market?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Xiao Hai, 0x31ad.sun, Crypto.0824, and Mr. Mis will be invited to attend and discuss the marginal impact of easing geopolitical risks on the pricing of risk assets, as well as the reconstruction of the medium and long-term narrative of crypto assets against the backdrop of a gradually clarifying global regulatory environment.

At the "Crypto 2026: From Cryptocurrency to Smart Economy" themed forum held in Hong Kong, guests including Sign partner Sarah, HashKey Chain Senior Business Development YuYi, Monad Greater China Ecosystem Head Harvey Chen, OmenX Chief Marketing Officer Gisele, and SVP Chain Market Head Celest engaged in a roundtable discussion on "The Revaluation of Crypto and the New Cycle."Regarding why they remain firmly invested in Crypto amid the AI boom, Sarah pointed out that the hotter AI gets, the more use cases there are for Crypto assets, and future transactions between AI Agents will rely on digital assets. YuYi believes that the bear market is precisely when the wheat is separated from the chaff, with compliant RWA (such as Hong Kong's first physical silver token) being implemented, speculative assets being eliminated, and the era of on-chain infrastructure arriving. Harvey Chen stated that high-performance public chains are the foundation for supporting large-scale applications, and Monad is committed to this. Gisele noted that Crypto addresses fairness and value transfer, complementing AI's focus on efficiency. Celest emphasized that AI lacks a native value system and increasingly requires Crypto to provide value authentication and decentralized trust.On the changing understanding of Crypto's value, the guests unanimously agreed that the industry is shifting from "issuing tokens for the sake of issuing tokens" to pursuing sustainable business models, with greater focus on capital efficiency, low costs, and 24-hour settlement as practical values. The value of public chains should be assessed based on real business scenarios and user transaction volumes, rather than narratives and financing.Regarding future growth engines and entrepreneurial advice, the guests generally expressed optimism about compliant RWA, AI payments, and sovereign blockchain directions, advising entrepreneurs to focus on real application scenarios, avoid empty concepts, and maintain a long-term construction mindset.

At the "Crypto 2026: From Cryptocurrency to Smart Economy" themed forum held in Hong Kong, Max Zhou, the business leader of RootData, delivered a keynote speech titled "Trust as Infrastructure: How Data Transparency Reshapes the New Cycle of Web3."Max Zhou pointed out that transparency is no longer an "added bonus," but rather a threshold for institutions, regulators, and users. RootData positions itself as a leading Web3 enterprise data platform, quantifying project information completeness and credibility through financing data, relationship graphs, and the industry's unique "transparency scoring" system.He introduced that RootData has recorded over 9,600 financing events, more than 18,000 key industry figures, and has rated over 19,000 projects on a scale from A to F, becoming an important reference for institutional due diligence and exchange listing assessments. The platform has established ecological cooperation with over 220 institutions, including Binance Wallet, OKX, and ByBit.In addition, RootData has launched a three-dimensional exchange assessment model (liquidity + asset value + transparency), abandoning the "volume-only theory." Max Zhou emphasized that transparency is becoming a new axis for Web3, just as essential as security audits.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange today published a consultation document regarding the shortening of the settlement cycle for the Hong Kong stock cash market (the "Consultation Document"), proposing to shorten the settlement cycle from the current T+2 to T+1, and seeking market opinions on the proposal.

According to CoinDesk, the current Bitcoin halving cycle has surpassed halfway, with block rewards reduced to 3.125 BTC, an inflation rate below 1%, and total supply continuously approaching the fixed cap of 21 million coins.Since the 2024 halving, the price of Bitcoin has increased by about 15%, a rise lower than in previous halving cycles, reflecting a gradual decrease in price volatility as Bitcoin adoption increases and the market matures. This cycle is expected to end in 2028, with halving events occurring every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years.Data shows that Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $126,000 in 2025, then fell back to $60,000, with recent prices recovering to nearly $75,000. The current market is focused on whether a price breakthrough above $75,500 could lead to about $200 million in short positions being liquidated, further driving price movements.

JP Richardson, CEO of Exodus, stated that this year institutions are accelerating their entry into the cryptocurrency market, while retail participation has declined, indicating that the market may be entering a new phase dominated by institutions.He pointed out that the current market capitalization of stablecoins has reached an all-time high, and traditional financial institutions are continuing to make moves, including launching Bitcoin ETFs and establishing crypto-related business departments. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, also mentioned that under inflation and cost-of-living pressures, retail funding is constrained, and this cycle may exhibit characteristics of being institution-led and lasting longer. Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that the inflow of funds into small accounts holding less than 1 BTC on Binance has dropped to a nearly nine-year low, indicating a decline in retail participation.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated during a live broadcast at Binance Square on April 8 that since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015 and experiencing two to three cycles of bull and bear markets, he still tends to be "long-term bullish," but the premise is not to be overly optimistic and to face the market's cyclicality and "huge volatility." In his view, the pullbacks and rebounds of crypto assets far exceed those of traditional markets, and investors need to maintain clarity and risk awareness amid the volatility.Regarding the market pressure this year, Yi attributed it to multiple external factors: the unfulfilled expectations of interest rate cuts at the macro level, geopolitical disturbances, slower-than-expected policy advancements, and the cooling of certain narratives (such as "national strategy"); combined with the impact of the four-year cycle, he believes the correction may exceed the original plan. However, he emphasized that this is more about the external financial environment and cycles amplifying short-term volatility, and his core judgment on ETH from a long-term perspective has not changed.On the strategic level, he believes that the difficulty of primary investments has significantly increased after 2022-2023: early-stage primary project cycles are shorter, and liquidity is released faster, but as market structures and unlocking/circulation arrangements change, the window of opportunity for investors has clearly narrowed, making primary investments "not as easy as before." Therefore, he is gradually reducing his involvement in primary investments and focusing more on research and opportunity capture in the secondary market.In addition, he emphasized that AI is accelerating the reshaping of the competitive landscape: over the past two to three months, he has invested more effort into learning about AI and promoting the transformation of invested companies towards AI, believing that individuals and teams that do not understand or cannot use AI in the future may be quickly eliminated. In response to external controversies such as "pumping and dumping," he stated that investment ultimately depends on asset value and trends, and large markets are difficult to be driven by a single participant.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin has dropped 52% since its peak in October 2025, with a 3-day SMA crossover signal appearing on February 27 (the death cross of both the 50-period and 200-period SMA), which has now lasted for 30 days. Historical patterns suggest that the final accumulation window of this cycle may occur within the next 3-6 days.Alicharts points out that historical records show that in every major cycle since 2014, the crossover of the 50 and 200 SMA marks an absolute bottom and a golden buying opportunity. Past cycles indicate that a final drop of 40-52% occurs 23-33 days after the crossover, completing the bear market washout. The potential washout target for this cycle is between $30,000 and $40,000, after which the next bull market will begin.

The globally oriented Web3 intellectual property (IP) infrastructure project BeatSwap will launch its core product "Space" in Q2. This product is defined as the SocialFi layer in the ecosystem, aimed at directly connecting creators with users and achieving deep integration with other modules of the platform.As a result, a complete user behavior closed loop is formed within the platform: Discovery; Participation; Consumption; Rewards; Trading. The announcement states that the launch of this product marks BeatSwap's evolution towards a full-stack Web3 infrastructure. Through the integration of IP certification and on-chain registration, revenue distribution, incentive mechanisms, and other aspects, the platform constructs an end-to-end closed-loop path, allowing IP rights to complete the full cycle of "creation---usage---monetization" within the same ecosystem.

According to Forbes, Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in a research report that the decline in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market has roughly reached the historical average level from peak to trough in this cycle. In recent weeks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks have shown volatility but are trending towards stability. However, Yaro warned that trading volume may decline further, and in a low trading volume environment, Bitcoin prices are prone to significant fluctuations, making any rebound difficult to sustain.He pointed out that trading volume typically remains at a low for about three months before showing a noticeable recovery. If trading volume continues to decline, cryptocurrency companies' revenues may decrease by 2% and profits by 4% in 2026. Goldman Sachs currently rates Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase as "buy," with the stock prices of these three companies down at least 50% from their historical highs. Yaro stated that digital asset-related targets are presenting increasingly attractive entry points.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum held at Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Florida that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin, marking a shift in his stance for 2024. This week, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $60,000, and Trade Nation senior market analyst David Morrison noted that Bitcoin previously faced resistance and retreated around $72,000. Currently, the daily MACD indicator is flattening at a neutral level, and the short-term trend direction remains unclear.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and long-term holders selling at the psychological price level of $100,000. He pointed out that while the inflow of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs has made the four-year cycle "milder," it has not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the collective belief of market participants can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.He predicts that Bitcoin will exhibit a volatile trend for most of 2026, with a rise beginning in the fourth quarter as part of a new bull market cycle. Scaramucci mentioned that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by 2025, driven by the pro-crypto agenda of the Trump administration and a warming regulatory environment, but the market crash in October completely shattered this consensus.He used the example of Bitcoin's performance in early 2023 following the FTX collapse in November 2022 to illustrate that the market often moves in the opposite direction of mainstream sentiment, with bull markets typically starting during periods of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market is considered a "normal" adjustment consistent with past corrections.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast titled "HTX Comprehensive Empowerment: A New Cycle for $HTX" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, HTX DAO core builder Molly, HTX DAO governance committee members DaDa, Sister Mao, CDCClub co-founder Tingting, Ctalks co-founder Daling, CMO DI Michill, and HTX research team leader Cloud will be invited to attend. They will discuss the empowerment path of the HTX DAO ecosystem and the application expansion of $HTX in various scenarios such as trading and rights, exploring the positioning upgrade and value reassessment of $HTX in the new market cycle.

Cryptocurrency market maker GSR announced the acquisition of Autonomous and Architech for $57 million, building an integrated capital market and fund management platform that covers the entire lifecycle of projects from launch to expansion.After the acquisition is completed, Autonomous will continue to operate independently, providing support for the launch and operation of tokenized organizations; Architech will become a core component of GSR's digital asset consulting business. This acquisition marks GSR's further transformation into a "one-stop capital market service provider for crypto," strengthening its layout in the institutional-grade infrastructure and full-cycle service fields.This integration aims to address the current issues in the crypto industry regarding the decentralization of services and inconsistent incentives in areas such as token issuance, governance design, liquidity, financing, and listing strategies, by providing collaborative support through a unified framework. Additionally, clients will have access to GSR's existing institutional trading, derivatives, and asset management capabilities. GSR stated that the platform will also focus on enhancing the treasury management capabilities of crypto projects, covering liquidity planning, cash flow forecasting, risk management, and asset allocation strategies, promoting the transition of crypto funds from passive holding to sustainable returns and diversified allocation.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The last time the seller risk ratio showed active selling pressure signals was in December 2024 (around $107,000), after which the signal has remained off. Currently, the model shows accumulation signals, while the selling pressure on the network has decreased to about 6 times lower than the average level of this cycle. The indicator continues to decline and has replicated the levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market, when Bitcoin prices were around $16,000-$20,000.The current cycle has gone through a distribution phase and has re-entered the accumulation phase, which is still ongoing. The 180-day rolling average has dropped to 1,913, a level that historically corresponds to bear market phases, but at that time, the corresponding price was only $16,000-$20,000, while the current price is in the $67,000-$72,000 range. The current market state is neutral with a slight accumulation bias. The main risk is: if there is a lack of price catalysts, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation, in which case the rolling average SRR indicator will continue to decline."

Cryptanalysis expert PlanB posted on the X platform, stating that the current Bitcoin price remains in the $67,000 range, but the S2F model still predicts a potential rise to $500,000 during the 2024-2028 cycle.If the model's judgment is accurate, it means that the current price of Bitcoin is severely undervalued and could likely be a potential long-term buying opportunity. However, the market is also discussing whether the model has become invalid. PlanB simultaneously asked the community, "Will Bitcoin's future trend be bullish or a collapse?"

Cryptocurrency market analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on social media: "Bitcoin is currently in the mid-stage of this cycle. The NUPL--MVRV harmonic composite indicator is at 0.33, while the bottoms in previous cycles typically occur close to -0.5.This indicator also shows that the cycle lows are gradually moving up, indicating that the extreme panic selling in the market is diminishing. However, the indicator is still significantly above the historical bottom region, so the market has not yet confirmed a comprehensive capitulation sell-off."