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According to Jinshi reports, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio stated on April 27 local time that inflationary pressures continue to accumulate alongside slowing economic growth, and policymakers must remain cautious. He pointed out that the U.S. economy is undoubtedly in a stagflation period and warned that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Federal Reserve Chairman, chooses to cut interest rates, it will lead to a decision-making error.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. In addition, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by June is 4.5%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle stated that the path for Kevin Warsh to become the chairman of the Federal Reserve has become clear, but changes in leadership may not immediately alter the Fed's policy stance in the coming months. He pointed out that the new chairman may not be able to advocate for rate cuts as forcefully as Powell, especially given the high uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East. Goldman Sachs still believes that easing policies will be introduced before the end of the year, expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December, respectively.

According to Jinshi reports, economists at UniCredit Bank stated in a report that the European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and September.They pointed out that, assuming the economy does not encounter problems, the likelihood of future rate hikes is greater than that of no hikes. The European Central Bank will release its latest macroeconomic forecasts in June to more accurately assess the risks to price stability.

In a report, Deutsche Bank analyst Folkmar Bauer stated that if the Bank of Japan maintains its interest rates on Wednesday and adopts a cautious stance on future rate hikes, the yen may weaken. He noted that the market expects the Bank of Japan to provide a fairly clear signal indicating a possible rate hike in June—at least provided that the conflict in Iran has eased by then.If this signal does not materialize, the Japanese Ministry of Finance's warning about intervention to support the yen will "no longer be of much help." Bauer mentioned that in this scenario, the USD/JPY could rise above 160.

According to Jinshi reports, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian stated that the price shocks caused by the Middle East war have pushed market expectations toward an environment of "interest rates remaining at higher levels for a longer period," affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan. He pointed out that the current situation, accompanied by negative demand shocks from "second-round effects," poses a potential risk of spreading to financial instability, highlighting the uncertainty of the outlook.

According to Jinshi reports, Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo stated in a report that as the Middle East conflict enters its ninth week, central banks will assess its current impact and future expectations. This week, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. The analyst said, "This week, monetary policy decisions will become the main driving force for the market." It is expected that the aforementioned five central banks will keep interest rates unchanged, but their assessments of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict will be closely monitored.

According to Jinshi reports, Barclays Bank analysts stated in a report that against the backdrop of high inflation, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate range unchanged at this week's meeting, but there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year. Analysts said that if inflation falls as expected, the Federal Reserve is expected to gain enough confidence around September to begin easing policy.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95.3%.

According to Coinglass data, the total contract open interest for BTC has decreased by 5.34% in the past 24 hours, with the current total open interest at 59.571 billion USD. Among them, Binance's open interest is 10.25 billion USD, OKX's open interest is 3.488 billion USD, Bybit's open interest is 4.652 billion USD, and Gate's open interest is 4.902 billion USD.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 99%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 1%.

According to official news, KelpDAO stated that over the past few days, the team has been continuously advancing the handling of related events with the support of partners, allies, and the community. Discussions are progressing in a positive direction, and efforts are being accelerated to reach a suitable solution. The project party emphasized that it always adheres to the core principle of "user first," and subsequent measures will be gradually implemented with the aim of safeguarding the overall interests of users.In the past four days, the Kelp team has been working around the clock in collaboration with multiple parties, maintaining close communication with all relevant parties, and making substantial progress on several potential solutions. This includes measures taken by the Arbitrum Security Council to freeze the stolen funds, as well as SEAL 911 participating in the preliminary investigation to provide objective and clear analytical support for the incident.Kelp stated that the current focus of work remains on protecting user asset security and strengthening the protocol itself. This incident is not only of critical significance to the project but also has enlightening value for the entire industry. The team will continue to disclose subsequent progress through official channels and thanks the ecological partners and community for their ongoing support.Previous reports indicated that the KelpDAO hacker has essentially laundered $175 million in ETH into BTC.

According to on-chain analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888), the BTC price has risen to around $79,000, and the current open interest (OI) in the futures market has returned to a recent high of 472,000 BTC, with market leverage continuing to accumulate.During yesterday's peak, short sellers paid an average funding fee of up to $604,000 per hour to long positions, which, although lower than the peak, still far exceeds the 7-day average ($197,000). Murphy pointed out that the high OI combined with negative premiums intensifies the situation; once the price rebounds, short sellers forced to close their positions or facing liquidation will create buying pressure, triggering a short squeeze. Historically, rebounds have occurred under similar conditions on March 9 and April 13, and the current short ratio is not ideal.

Aurise Foundation announced the launch of the yield-generating gold token XAUE on Ethereum, aimed at serving as a yield-bearing treasury for Tether Gold (XAU₮). XAUE is designed for compliant institutional participants, introducing crypto-native yields to traditional non-yielding gold through quantitative strategies and institutional lending, transforming it into a programmable and capital-efficient on-chain asset.Currently, ecosystem partners Aurelion and Antalpha have jointly contributed 16,052 XAU₮ (approximately 76 million USD) to XAUE. The protocol adopts an exchange rate growth model, where the gold value anchored by each XAUE increases as yields accumulate, and it will integrate with more decentralized finance protocols such as DEX in the future.

Circle Chief Economist Gordon Liao initiated a proposal on the Aave governance forum, suggesting an emergency adjustment to the USDC interest rate parameters in the Aave V3 Ethereum main pool to address the situation where the pool's utilization rate has remained at a very high level of 99.87% for four consecutive days following the KelpDAO attack incident.Liao stated that Aave's current interest rate mechanism has failed to effectively "clear" the market. The current supply of the pool is $1.89 billion, with the borrowing amount also at $1.89 billion, and available liquidity is less than $3 million. The borrowing interest rate remains at the upper limit after the inflection point (around 14%), and over the past 24 hours, the pool size has shrunk by about $60 million—this is due to repayment funds being used one by one to meet the withdrawal demands in the queue.Therefore, the Slope 2 parameter in the USDC deposit interest rate curve should be immediately increased from about 10% to 40% through the Risk Steward mechanism, and further confirmation to raise the target to 50% should be achieved through governance voting within 5 to 7 days. Meanwhile, the optimal utilization will be adjusted down from 92% to 87% during the transition phase, and after final confirmation, it will be reduced to 85%. According to Liao's proposal, under the new parameter settings, when the utilization rate reaches 100%, the maximum USDC deposit interest rate will increase from about 12.6% to 48.2%.

According to Coinglass data, the total contract open interest for BTC has increased by 11.07% in the past 24 hours, with the current total open interest at 62.423 billion USD. Among them, Binance's open interest is 10.709 billion USD, OKX's open interest is 3.667 billion USD, Bybit's open interest is 5.099 billion USD, and Gate's open interest is 5.501 billion USD.

According to Jinshi reports, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that he can imagine reducing the balance sheet while lowering interest rates.

According to Coinglass data, the total contract open interest for BTC has increased by 12.62% in the past 24 hours, with the current total open interest at $63.532 billion. Among them, the open interest on Binance is $10.93 billion, OKX is $3.77 billion, Bybit is $5.169 billion, and Gate is $5.767 billion.