positive

According to CoinDesk, Fidelity Digital Assets released the "Q2 2026 Signal Report," indicating that although the overall cryptocurrency market was in a consolidation phase at the beginning of the second quarter, several underlying data points have shown signs of stabilization.The report shows that Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, with capital consistently concentrating on the most liquid assets. The levels of unrealized profits and momentum indicators are consistent with characteristics of a correction period, which may lay the foundation for a more stable market structure in the future.Meanwhile, the network usage and price trends of Ethereum and Solana have diverged, indicating that demand at the protocol layer remains robust. The report also notes that Bitcoin futures are currently experiencing negative funding rates, and research institution 10x believes this reflects structural hedging behavior by institutions rather than an overall bearish signal.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been positive for 18 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0336%.The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. A negative premium typically reflects greater selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investor risk appetite, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

The head of the ETF business at BNY Mellon stated that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned into net inflows this year, returning to positive territory overall. Bloomberg data shows that fund flows for all periods of spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive for the first time in months.Although there were outflows previously due to low coin prices and macro uncertainties, the scale was relatively limited. As of now, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately $335 million in a single day, with a monthly cumulative inflow exceeding $2.1 billion, and a year-to-date net inflow of about $1.8 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT is the largest contributor, with an inflow of about $246 million in the past day and a monthly inflow reaching $1.9 billion; meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC still recorded some outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has shown signs of turning upward, and market sentiment has improved.

According to Jinshi reports, the Nasdaq 100 index has turned positive, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned positive across the board, stating "all rolling periods we track are positive," marking the first time in several months. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT has seen cumulative inflows of about $3 billion, placing it in the top 1% of all ETF fund flow performances. However, Eric Balchunas pointed out that there are still several billion dollars needed to return to the historical cumulative fund flow high of $62.8 billion, but at least it indicates that the sentiment around Bitcoin ETF funds has clearly improved and market demand is recovering.

According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index has been positive for 14 consecutive days since April 9, marking the longest bullish record since BTC reached its historical high of over $126,000 in 2025.As the preferred exchange for institutional investors in the United States, Coinbase's sustained positive premium indicates that U.S. institutions such as corporate treasuries, hedge funds, and ETFs are actively buying BTC.

According to PR Newswire, Bitmine Chairman Thomas "Tom" Lee stated, "We are seeing more and more signs that the mini crypto winter is coming to an end."With the downside risks of the US-Iran war diminishing, ETH has rebounded 41% from its low in early February. Since the outbreak of the war, ETH has outperformed the S&P 500 index by 2,280 basis points and remains the best-performing asset globally (excluding oil prices). Ethereum continues to benefit from two major positive narratives, including Wall Street's asset tokenization on the blockchain and the increasing need for public, neutral blockchains by proxy AI systems.In our view, it is significant that ETH has become the best wartime store of value and that ETH has led the market since the war began. Although many believe the crypto winter may last until the fall of 2026, our perspective remains that the crypto winter is nearing its end.Since 2015, every major crypto winter has coincided with a stock market pullback of at least 20%. In fact, the crypto pullback in 2025 occurred simultaneously with a 20% drop in the S&P 500 index. However, in 2026, the stock market pullback was more moderate, at only -8%.

Crypto market analyst Axel posted on social media that the BTC futures market saw a daily liquidation of approximately $526 million in shorts, and the open interest (OI) did not rebuild leverage after reaching a peak of 319,499 BTC, instead falling back to 293,045 BTC.The liquidation dominance indicator has turned positive after being in negative territory for two consecutive weeks, indicating the end of the systemic short squeeze phase. The current price remains stable in the range of 75,000-76,000 while OI contracts, forming a constructive structure of "cooling after a short squeeze," rather than a new round of overheating. The next focus will be whether OI will return above 300,000 BTC when the price attempts to break through.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 9 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0117%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.ChainCatcher Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0401%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after previously being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investors' risk appetite, an increase in market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, a company in the Ethereum treasury, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The reason the stock market remains resilient is that even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He pointed out that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and could rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which has a significant stimulating effect on the economy; meanwhile, the rise in oil prices by $20 per month only adds about $12 billion in burden to households, "Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now."Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed out in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, and at that time, no American troops had even set foot on the European or Pacific battlefields." He believes, "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes ahead of time; the current rise in the stock market means that the market is pricing in a favorable outcome, although I can't clearly articulate the specific reasons, but that's the signal conveyed by the market's performance."Regarding the three major variables in the current market— the Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee stated, "Among the three, only war can create tail events in both directions, so this is the variable that deserves the closest attention." In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and pointed out that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.

According to Jinshi reports, the Iran war has restored the traditional relationship between the dollar and stock market volatility, with risk-averse investors flocking back to U.S. assets. Since the outbreak of the war, the positive correlation between the dollar and the fear index VIX has continued to strengthen, currently nearing its highest level since 2024. Shaun Osborne, Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist at Scotiabank, stated that if the situation in the Gulf region does not trigger a significant and sustained rebound in VIX, the dollar may further widen its decline.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo tweeted that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin has just turned positive, marking the first time since January, and liquidity is being restored.At the same time, the spot market remains stable, while the derivatives market is currently attempting a second rebound after being hit hard on October 10.Willy Woo pointed out that $80,000 is the current key testing level.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Bitcoin ETFs have once again recorded a solid week of inflows, and overall funds have officially turned positive. Although the previous outflows were not significant, against the backdrop of limited price increase momentum, funds have still successfully "filled the gap," demonstrating strong resilience.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 2 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.014%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market is beginning to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stock indices have risen sharply in the short term, and the Nasdaq index has turned positive. U.S. media reports that Trump has asked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to reduce military operations in Lebanon.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, despite the current market facing geopolitical tensions and their economic impacts, the environment for risk assets remains challenging, but some investors seem more inclined to hold Bitcoin for the long term. Data shows that the supply of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin is gradually increasing, presenting constructive and positive signals.As of the end of November last year, the supply of Bitcoin long-term holders (30-day moving average) had dropped to -674,000 BTC, but it has now rebounded to a positive value, averaging an increase of about 308,000 BTC. This indicates that investor behavior is shifting from selling to holding. Although the price of Bitcoin is still fluctuating within a range, an increase in long-term holdings is often a precursor to price rises.The analysis points out that this indicator is based on the UTXO model, reflecting the natural transfer of UTXOs created six months ago and not spent into the long-term holder category, and does not fully represent the active accumulation behavior of long-term holders. Continuous observation of this dynamic is still needed; if the supply of long-term holders continues to rise, it may become a more convincing positive signal for the market.