prediction

Recently, Gate predicts that the market expectations for Ethereum's price performance on April 27 are highly consistent. Data shows that the current probability of "ETH being above $1800" and various ranges such as "$1900/$2000/$2100" all reach 100%, while the probability of being above $2200 also reaches 99%, indicating a significantly bullish market sentiment. In contrast, the probability for $2300 is about 72%, while the probability for above $2400 drops sharply to 7%, reflecting a divergence in short-term upward expectations.Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with prediction markets, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.It is worth noting that Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to improve, currently ranking in the top two, with a significant expansion in user participation scale. The cumulative trading volume has reached $24.87 million, with a total of 206,055 transactions, reflecting the increasing activity and depth of participation of platform users in the prediction market.

According to Cointelegraph, Brazilian authorities announced the ban of 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (prediction feature), and Fanatics Markets.The ban is led by the Ministry of Finance and executed by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), based on Resolution No. 5.298 issued by the Brazilian National Monetary Council (CMN), which will officially take effect in early May. The new regulations explicitly prohibit prediction contracts linked to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events, deeming their nature closer to gambling rather than financial investment; only contracts linked to economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices will be retained. Dario Durigan, the executive secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that prediction markets could deepen the debt burden of households and small to medium-sized enterprises, posing financial risks. Currently, several countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, have implemented similar restrictions.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today submitted an amicus brief to the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts, reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over the U.S. commodity derivatives market (including prediction markets). This case involves Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEx LLC (case number SJC-13906).CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that Congress has authorized the CFTC to have sole regulatory authority over the commodity derivatives market and warned that any state attempting to override federal law "will see you in court." The brief details the legislative history and framework of the Commodity Exchange Act, clarifying that the federal regulatory system takes precedence over relevant state laws. Previously, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, and New York, successfully obtaining a temporary restraining order against Arizona to prevent it from exercising state jurisdiction over prediction markets regulated by the CFTC.

Gate Research Institute released a market forecast report titled "Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate's Layout for New Entry into Prediction Markets," which dissects trading volume, fee mechanisms, and market structure. The report points out that Polymarket's trading volume and active users continue to grow, and the platform has evolved from early on-chain experiments into an event trading market with real liquidity and revenue capabilities. Overall growth is driven by political, sports, and geopolitical events, and user retention may decline during the phase when hot topics fade.Fees and revenues are rising rapidly, driven on one hand by expanding trading demand and on the other by the expansion of the fee scope and changes in the fee structure. Revenue growth is directly related to rule adjustments. Platform trading is highly concentrated in a few high-interest sectors, and the long-tail market contributes limited overall liquidity.Gate has integrated a Polymarket entry in the app, providing two interaction modes: prediction mode and trading mode. Users can participate using USDT through their exchange accounts or use USDC on Polygon via a Web3 wallet. The report believes that prediction markets are evolving along two parallel paths: the integration of on-chain open infrastructure and centralized products. Its long-term potential depends on the continuous stability of event supply, regulatory environment, and user behavior.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Trump stated that he will investigate the betting behavior of federal employees on event betting platforms, concerned that some may profit in prediction markets using confidential government information.Previously, federal authorities arrested a soldier involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Maduro, who had successfully bet that Maduro would be ousted, earning about $400,000.

The decentralized prediction market network Reppo announced that its Reppo Foundation has received a strategic investment commitment of $20,000,000 from Bolts Capital to support the next phase of development and ecosystem expansion of the Reppo protocol, as well as to promote the use of prediction markets to solve the training data bottleneck issue.Reppo stated that its core concept is to transform human judgment into verifiable, incentivized data sources through prediction market mechanisms, addressing the current challenges in acquiring high-quality data for AI training. The project supports multimodal data processing, including text, images, audio, and video, by building a decentralized data network (Datanets), providing support for model training, evaluation, and fine-tuning.

AI laboratory Sooth Labs, founded by former Meta employees, is raising approximately $50 million in funding, led by Felicis Ventures, with a post-money valuation of about $335 million.The company plans to develop AI models to predict the likelihood of specific geopolitical events and market events, providing related capabilities to enterprises. Sooth Labs has also received support from Yann LeCun and Google Chief Scientist Jeff Dean, with Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth serving as an advisor.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform, stating that there is a significant risk associated with a single data source in light of the recent incident where weather sensors at Paris airport were interfered with, affecting the outcomes of prediction markets.He pointed out that for such data-driven prediction markets, at least the median of three independent data sources should be used as a reference to reduce the possibility of manipulation.

A user profited $34,000 in the Polymarket weather prediction market by interfering with the weather sensors at Paris airport. Polymarket previously settled using data from Météo France sensors near Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, and the user bought temperature options at a very low price that were far above market expectations. The user then used a portable heat source to heat the sensor, causing the readings to spike significantly in a short period and be recorded as the highest temperature of the day. This behavior occurred twice on April 6 and April 15, and Météo France has now detected the anomalies and filed charges.

According to official news, Jupiter has launched the Jupiter Prediction Bot, bringing its market predictions to Telegram, with a new "Clans" feature that allows traders to team up, discuss the market, and engage in social competition.

Ju.com officially announced the launch of its new product matrix Hyper Trade, with the first three lightweight interactive products "Happy BTC," "Finger Trading," and "Bounty Duel" going live.This product is developed by Ju.com, with a core positioning of "market prediction interactive experience." The product relies on real-time market price fluctuations and focuses on three main features: "low threshold, short cycle, and transparent settlement," aiming to lower the technical barriers for users participating in market predictions through multi-dimensional interactive logic.Hyper Trade has been launched today at 16:00 (UTC+8) on both the web and app platforms. The platform stated that it will continue to optimize the product matrix in the future, building a more intuitive digital asset interactive ecosystem for users while ensuring compliance and transparency.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that the company has moved the lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James regarding its prediction market business from state court to federal court, claiming that the case involves disputes at the federal legal level.The lawsuit accuses Coinbase and Gemini's related prediction market products of violating New York state gambling laws by allowing users to participate in trading events such as sports, entertainment, and elections without obtaining a license. Coinbase believes that prediction markets should be uniformly regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and will continue to advocate for federal regulatory recognition.The case involves the division of regulatory authority between state and federal levels, which may have significant implications for the regulatory framework of prediction market platforms.

According to CoinDesk, the prediction market platform Kalshi is preparing to launch cryptocurrency trading in the United States, expanding beyond its core prediction market business. According to insiders, the platform plans to initially introduce perpetual contracts linked to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.This move will put Kalshi in more direct competition with cryptocurrency platforms like Coinbase. Coinbase currently does not offer true perpetual contracts in the U.S., but has launched "perpetual-like" futures contracts with long durations and has expressed intentions to introduce more advanced derivatives products within the U.S.Kalshi holds several licenses from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has recently been approved to offer margin trading, positioning it to enter the derivatives market. Insiders say the company expects to start with cryptocurrency-linked perpetual contracts and may expand this model to other asset classes in the future.Kalshi's competitor Polymarket also announced on X plans to launch perpetual futures on its platform, but did not disclose further details. A video in the tweet shows that users will be allowed to trade leveraged long and short positions on assets like gold, NVIDIA, BTC, AAPL, and indicates that registration will provide early access.

According to The Information, citing informed sources, the prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks with investors for financing, aiming to raise $400 million at a valuation of approximately $15 billion (including new funds).This financing will be added to the $600 million funding round that the Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) invested in last month, although the exchange did not disclose the valuation at that time. Polymarket is seeking to add more strategic investors beyond the Intercontinental Exchange.

According to Hong Kong Radio, the Hong Kong government has decided to stop promoting basketball gambling projects. The Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs, Mak Mei-juan, stated in an interview with this station that the information collected by the authorities shows that the "prediction market" has developed rapidly in recent years, with monthly trading volume increasing from less than $100 million two years ago to over $13 billion last year, of which nearly 40% of the transactions are related to sports. The authorities are concerned that if new gambling projects are promoted at this time, it will lead to greater public concern and even participation in illegal gambling in the "prediction market." Therefore, it is believed that research should be conducted first before deciding on the next steps, and the promotion of new gambling projects should be halted for now.Mak Mei-juan stated that the existing regulated gambling projects have established a more mature monitoring and management system, which can help control risks. However, due to the uncertainty of the "prediction market," as a responsible government, there is a need to conduct research to understand the impact of the "prediction market" and its prevalence in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that the government has always maintained close contact with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the club has a rigorous monitoring system to oversee illegal gambling situations, and there are experts specifically targeting the fight against illegal gambling. The government will cooperate with the Jockey Club to obtain professional advice, allowing the authorities to implement measures specifically aimed at illegal gambling.Mak Mei-juan reiterated that the government's consistent policy is not to encourage gambling, and betting on sports projects in the "prediction market" is considered illegal gambling. The authorities will strengthen public education to help citizens understand the harms of gambling and refrain from participating in illegal gambling.

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to Decrypt, Charles Schwab President and CEO Rick Wurster stated that the company may offer prediction market services in the future, but will focus on financial event-related contracts such as inflation, avoiding themes like pop culture, politics, and sports.Previously, Charles Schwab announced that it would launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services in the coming weeks, with a transaction fee rate of 0.75%. The company also plans to gradually expand its cryptocurrency business, including opening digital asset deposit and withdrawal functions, and increasing the range of supported tokens.