resistance

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

According to The Block, cryptocurrency mining company MARA's CEO Peter Thiel announced the establishment of a nonprofit organization, the MARA Foundation, dedicated to the long-term health, resilience, and adoption of the Bitcoin protocol. The foundation will support the development of anti-quantum tools (such as PQ wallets and the BIP 360 proposal), believing that while quantum computing is not an immediate threat to Bitcoin, network upgrades take time, and early preparation is crucial.The foundation will also allocate resources to ensure Bitcoin's security budget, support the development of a robust and healthy Bitcoin transaction fee market, and launch a global multilingual education program, expand access to self-custody tools, and engage in advocacy work aimed at policymakers and activists.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that by overlaying three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective shows that $80,000 is currently the first effective resistance above BTC. This position simultaneously has high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV conditions.As the price moves upward, the dynamic hedging of market makers can easily create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers to hedge adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + positive Gamma magnitude) makes $80,000 a "hard nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC), the market may quickly switch from being suppressed to "amplified volatility" mode.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ tweeted that if Bitcoin can rise above and hold the $80,000 mark, this position will turn from resistance to support; conversely, if it encounters rejection and falls back, it will confirm $80,000 as a significant selling pressure area, potentially extending the adjustment period into the second quarter.Currently, the realized price for BTC ETF investors is about $76,400, which is close to the spot price (around $76,300), marking the first time since January 30 that it has approached the breakeven point; short-term holder whales have a realized price around $79,600 and are currently facing an unrealized loss of about $9.4 billion.MorenoDV_ pointed out that historically, when these trapped funds are finally released, it often triggers significant selling pressure. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in the $76,000-$80,000 range, where $80,000 is not only an important psychological level but also a common breakeven and release threshold for these two major groups.

According to Cointelegraph, the monthly Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have reached the tightest level in history, with technical signals indicating that the market may experience significant volatility.The report points out that for Bitcoin to further open up upward space, it must first break through the resistance around $80,000. Meanwhile, the monthly RSI for Bitcoin has dropped to a low not seen since the end of 2022 and has once again touched a multi-year support trend line.Market data shows that there is strong selling pressure in the $78,000 to $80,000 range; if it stands above the resistance zone of $76,000 to $78,000, the price may further test $84,000.

Ripple officially announced its quantum resistance roadmap, with the core goal of making the XRP Ledger (XRPL) quantum-resistant by 2028. The roadmap primarily addresses the potential attack mode of "harvest now, decrypt later," where attackers collect encrypted data now and wait for future quantum computers to mature before cracking it.The entire plan will be implemented in four phases:Phase 1: Q-Day Emergency Preparedness (Already Started). Establish a Q-Day emergency response mechanism. If the existing classical encryption system is suddenly compromised, the network will immediately stop accepting traditional public key signatures, forcing a migration to quantum-safe accounts. At the same time, explore asset ownership verification solutions based on Post-Quantum ZK-proofs, allowing existing account holders to safely recover funds in emergencies without exposing vulnerable keys.Phase 2: Risk Assessment and Algorithm Testing (First Half of 2026). Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact of post-quantum cryptography on the performance, storage, and bandwidth of the XRP Ledger network. Collaborate with Project Eleven to conduct validator-level testing and Devnet benchmarking, deploy NIST standardized ML-DSA quantum-safe signature schemes, and develop prototypes for post-quantum custodial wallets. Core engineer Denis Angell has already deployed ML-DSA signatures on XRPL's AlphaNet.Phase 3: Devnet Hybrid Integration (Second Half of 2026). Parallel integration of candidate post-quantum signature schemes with existing elliptic curve signatures on the developer network (Devnet), allowing developers to test performance and system impacts without affecting the mainnet. At the same time, explore post-quantum zero-knowledge proof primitives and homomorphic encryption technologies for Confidential Transfers to enhance the privacy and compliance capabilities of tokenized real-world assets on XRPL.Phase 4: Full Mainnet Upgrade (Target 2028). Submit a formal protocol amendment, which will be fully enabled on the mainnet after being approved by validator votes, to implement native post-quantum cryptography. Focus on production-ready optimization: throughput tuning, validator reliability assurance, and coordinated migration of the ecosystem, ensuring a complete transition without affecting network speed and settlement finality.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated that Bitcoin should adopt an optional quantum-resistant upgrade scheme, rather than the mandatory freezing of tokens at risk from quantum threats proposed in BIP-361.The BIP-361 proposal suggests phasing out addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks over five years and ultimately freezing un-migrated tokens, including assets held by Satoshi Nakamoto. Google's latest research indicates that a superconducting qubit system may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack Bitcoin encryption in just a few minutes. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC are at risk from such threats. In response to the quantum threat, BitMEX Research proposed establishing a canary fund that would implement a full freeze only when expenditures occur from the relevant addresses.

According to market news, Blockstream CEO Adam Back stated at the Paris Blockchain Week that he supports the optional advancement of Bitcoin's quantum resistance upgrade and opposes the proposal to forcibly freeze quantum-vulnerable addresses. He emphasized that "preparation is much safer than hasty responses in a crisis" and pointed out that the Bitcoin community has the coordination ability to respond quickly to urgent vulnerabilities.Previously, the BIP-361 proposal ("Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset") put forward by developers Jameson Lopp and five others advocated for the gradual elimination of quantum-vulnerable addresses over five years, ultimately freezing coins that have not completed migration— including approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $75,000, facing supply pressure, but institutional demand remains stable.Market sentiment is boosted by news of the extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The dollar has fallen to a near six-week low, and U.S. Treasury yields have also declined, conditions that typically support cryptocurrency prices; gold has risen in tandem, indicating that the market is seeking a balance between risk appetite and safe-haven demand.On-chain data shows that when prices reach a key cost benchmark for short-term holders, Bitcoin often experiences a supply surge. This level is around $76,800, which could constitute significant resistance, at which point investors may choose to take profits when breaking even.The newly established MSBT fund under Morgan Stanley has quickly attracted over $100 million in inflows due to the market's lowest fee rates, prompting competitors like Goldman Sachs to initiate a new round of competition.Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's threats to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf continue to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. The impact on energy supply has begun to raise inflation expectations, which may influence central bank policy direction and, in turn, affect the cryptocurrency market.

According to analyst Alicharts, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. Bitcoin is testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance level, marking its third test in six months. The previous two tests ended in failure: in October last year, Bitcoin faced rejection, leading to a 30% drop from $116,000 to $80,000. In January, Bitcoin similarly faced rejection, resulting in a 39% drop from $97,000 to $59,800.Alicharts warns that a third rejection here would represent a significant structural failure. It could trigger a triple top effect, potentially pushing Bitcoin's price back to the annual low of $59,800. If BTC can ultimately break through this barrier and close above the 100-day SMA, then the upper limit will be breached. A breakout here would open a direct path to $80,000 - $84,000, confirming that the macro adjustment may have ended.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo tweeted that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin has just turned positive, marking the first time since January, and liquidity is being restored.At the same time, the spot market remains stable, while the derivatives market is currently attempting a second rebound after being hit hard on October 10.Willy Woo pointed out that $80,000 is the current key testing level.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at about $71,200, and Ethereum is at $2,185, with the overall market maintaining a range-bound fluctuation. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone warned that if Bitcoin cannot recover to $75,000, there is a risk of dropping to $10,000; Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the market bottom has been established.In terms of derivatives, Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 726,000 contracts, with the 24-hour CVD being positive for two consecutive days, and the funding rate slightly above zero, indicating an overall bullish tendency; the CVD and funding rates for ETH, XRP, and Solana are slightly negative. The volatility index continues to decline, with the market expecting price fluctuations of only about 2.5% around Friday's inflation data.Regarding altcoins, MANA and AERO each rose by about 6%, but MANA's increase was accompanied by a 25% surge in open interest, indicating it is mainly driven by leverage. The market is focused on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and establish support; if achieved, it may trigger a rotation of funds into oversold altcoin sectors.

Glassnode published an analysis of Bitcoin options Gamma exposure. Currently, BTC is in a narrow negative Gamma trading range around $65,000 to $70,000, where traders' hedging actions can easily amplify short-term price fluctuations.Resistance is accumulating around $72,000, while support is relatively thin below. Once the rebound momentum weakens, the downside risk is high. Bitcoin Gamma Exposure (GEX) is a derivatives indicator primarily used to analyze how the hedging behavior of options market makers affects the short-term volatility of Bitcoin spot prices.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that he will personally invest in research on Bitcoin's resistance to quantum-related issues and emphasized that the industry needs to push for solutions as soon as possible.Coinbase Chief Security Officer Philip Martin previously pointed out that as research in quantum computing progresses, the industry needs to accelerate its response to potential threats. He stated that post-quantum cryptography is feasible but still in the early stages of development. If implemented hastily, it could introduce new security risks, and there needs to be a consensus on issues such as how to handle wallets that have not completed migration. In addition, Coinbase has initiated related infrastructure upgrades and research, and is promoting collaboration among developers and the community to advance quantum-resistant solutions.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Bitcoin developers are advancing a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP360 "Pay to Merkle Root (P2MR)" aimed at enhancing Bitcoin's resistance to quantum threats, with a related testnet already deployed.Screenshots show that the corresponding code was submitted and verified on February 11, reflecting the community's proactive technical preparations for potential quantum computing threats.

The Google Quantum AI team pointed out in their latest blog post that most blockchain technologies and cryptocurrencies rely on the vulnerable ECDLP-256 protocol. Although viable solutions such as post-quantum cryptography (PQC) already exist, implementation takes time, and the urgency for action is increasing.Google has previously set a timeline for transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptography by 2029 and is collaborating with organizations such as Coinbase, the Stanford Blockchain Research Center, and the Ethereum Foundation to advance related work.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "BTC has still not been able to regain the realized price after removing long-term inactive supply. Excluding Bitcoin supply held for over 7 years to more accurately reflect the actual circulating chips. Filtering out lost Bitcoins and long-term 'diamond hands' holdings. Under this adjustment, the Bitcoin realized price is about $72,500, which currently constitutes a resistance level. BTC has been below this price for about two months. In each previous bear market, BTC has maintained below this cost basis for 6 to 10 months, during which it failed to effectively recover this level. If this pattern repeats, BTC may still face pressure in the coming months, with a high probability of continuing to operate below $72,500."

According to Cointelegraph, Nic Carter, founding partner of Castle Island Ventures, stated that Bitcoin's lag in quantum resistance could become a bullish reason for Ethereum.Carter mentioned that elliptic curve cryptography is nearing obsolescence, and blockchain developers need to accept the necessity of variable cryptography. He pointed out that Bitcoin developers are "turning a blind eye" to the quantum resistance issue, while Ethereum developers have made it a "top strategic priority" and have developed a detailed anti-quantum roadmap. Carter believes that unless Bitcoin changes rapidly, the ETH/BTC ratio will begin to reflect this difference in priorities. Previously, ARK Invest reported that about one-third of Bitcoin faces quantum threats, but this is considered a long-term risk. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed a quantum resistance roadmap in February. A co-author of BIP-360 responded that core contributors have been involved in the proposal. Carter criticized Bitcoin core developers for "denying, misleading, and rejecting community feedback," while Bitcoin developers stated that the proposal has received the most comments in history.

According to market news, influenced by the U.S. suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the geopolitical risk premium has decreased, leading to a drop in Brent crude oil prices, while Bitcoin has regained the $70,000 mark yesterday.Market analysis indicates that if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and oil prices stabilize around $100, Bitcoin is expected to test the resistance range of $74,000 to $76,000; if the situation worsens again, Bitcoin may fall back to the $65,000 range. If the easing continues, institutional buying on dips could push Bitcoin up to $80,000. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and the dot plot showed that 14 officials expect zero or only one rate cut in 2026, indicating that the macro environment still poses restrictions on risk assets.As of the week of March 22, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $708 million in a single day, the largest in two months, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a record weekly inflow of $160.8 million. The performance gap between Bitcoin and gold has significantly narrowed, with gold experiencing its largest weekly decline since 1983 last week, dropping over 10%.