sentiment

As market sentiment warms and liquidity returns, AI technology is accelerating its leap from a mere "analytical tool" to a core "trading hub," deeply reconstructing the underlying logic of the financial market's game.At 8 PM on April 28, a cutting-edge roundtable discussion focusing on "AI Trading" will be held in Space. At that time, several industry experts will engage in in-depth discussions from the perspectives of AI infrastructure evolution, trading structure reshaping, and financial paradigm shifts, jointly analyzing whether AI's deep integration into the trading process is becoming the true starting point driving a new cycle of evolution in Web3, guiding participants to accurately capture real Alpha opportunities with long-term value in a market landscape full of uncertainties.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

Glassnode tweeted that the whales on Hyperliquid have been anticipating a price breakthrough in this range. Over the past two months, their confidence and long positions have continued to increase, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among large perpetual contract traders.

The head of the ETF business at BNY Mellon stated that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have turned into net inflows this year, returning to positive territory overall. Bloomberg data shows that fund flows for all periods of spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive for the first time in months.Although there were outflows previously due to low coin prices and macro uncertainties, the scale was relatively limited. As of now, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately $335 million in a single day, with a monthly cumulative inflow exceeding $2.1 billion, and a year-to-date net inflow of about $1.8 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT is the largest contributor, with an inflow of about $246 million in the past day and a monthly inflow reaching $1.9 billion; meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC still recorded some outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has shown signs of turning upward, and market sentiment has improved.

According to Jinshi reports, the Nasdaq 100 index has turned positive, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has turned down, and market sentiment has weakened.

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 9 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0117%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.ChainCatcher Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has turned down, indicating a weakening market sentiment.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0401%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after previously being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investors' risk appetite, an increase in market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

According to Cointelegraph, after a recent rebound, Ethereum's price has stabilized above $2,300, with ETH futures open interest increasing to $25.4 billion, indicating a rise in demand for leveraged positions.Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net inflow of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion has also disclosed the purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has failed to remain above 5% and has repeatedly fallen below 0, reflecting limited market confidence in this round of increases. Additionally, Ethereum's weekly DApp revenue has dropped from $24 million in early February to $11 million, and weakened network activity along with intensified competition among public chains may continue to affect ETH's trend.

glassnode published its weekly market outlook, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum has increased by 51.7%, breaking through previous highs, reflecting a significant enhancement in spot buying power and a strengthening of market buying support.On the other hand, Bitcoin's futures open interest continues to rise, and the options Delta skew shows a moderation of bearish sentiment. Combined with a cooling of on-chain activity, this suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase but with improved sentiment. glassnode stated that from a profitability perspective, market pressure has eased. Overall, various indicators collectively suggest that the market is exhibiting strong bullish sentiment, increased investor participation, and enhanced risk appetite, although there are also signs of cautious sentiment and market stabilization.

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

According to Jinshi reports, due to Trump's order to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have surged, U.S. stock index futures have fallen, and the dollar has strengthened. This escalation of the situation occurred after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement in negotiations in Pakistan, which may leave investors feeling disappointed. Elias Haddad, the global market strategy director at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated that this move is bound to rekindle risk aversion this week. Investors are focused on the upcoming first-quarter earnings season, anticipating insights from corporate leadership on the increasing risks.

Amid a significant rebound in Bitcoin whale activity and a sharp decline in inflows to trading platforms, traders are setting Bitcoin's target price at $88,000. This week, after four days of consolidation between $70,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,255 on Friday.The current price structure resembles the breakout trend of the second quarter of 2025—at that time, the price had long been consolidating below the moving averages, and once it broke the descending trend line, it quickly surged to the next supply zone. Currently, $76,000 constitutes a key trigger point, which also corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending trend line formed since Bitcoin's decline from around $126,000. Once broken, the psychological resistance that has suppressed rebounds for the past few months may be eliminated.On-chain data shows that crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that in the past 30 days, inflows of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges have dropped to $2.96 billion, marking the first time since June 2025 that it has fallen below $3 billion, while this figure was as high as $8 billion in February this year. Meanwhile, as of April 9, long-term holders have realized a market value change of $49 billion, indicating that accumulation behavior has restarted.Taha stated that these indicators collectively reflect that chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands, showing a trend of steady accumulation rather than aggressive selling. The CoinGlass liquidity map shows that a large amount of visible liquidity is concentrated in the $86,000 to $90,000 range.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 2 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.014%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market is beginning to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Due to Trump's announcement of a two-week temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly rebounded, and the three major U.S. stock indices saw a significant rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1300 points in a single day, marking its best performance in nearly a year; WTI crude oil futures, on the other hand, plummeted over 16%.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, stated that the current market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving back toward historical highs. He pointed out that despite the previous surge in oil prices and escalation of conflicts, the stock market did not show a significant decline, indicating strong market resilience, while the ceasefire has become a catalyst for sentiment reversal.He expects that the S&P 500 index may rise to 7300 points within the year, which still has about 7.6% upside potential from the current level, and is optimistic about the subsequent performance of technology stocks, software, energy, and financial sectors. Among them, the "seven tech giants" are seen as the core driving force behind this round of rebound.Several institutional investors also believe that as geopolitical risks ease and oil prices fall, the market has entered a "relief rebound" phase, combined with the approaching earnings season, making the current time a potential window for buying on dips.