risks

According to The Block, cryptocurrency mining company MARA's CEO Peter Thiel announced the establishment of a nonprofit organization, the MARA Foundation, dedicated to the long-term health, resilience, and adoption of the Bitcoin protocol. The foundation will support the development of anti-quantum tools (such as PQ wallets and the BIP 360 proposal), believing that while quantum computing is not an immediate threat to Bitcoin, network upgrades take time, and early preparation is crucial.The foundation will also allocate resources to ensure Bitcoin's security budget, support the development of a robust and healthy Bitcoin transaction fee market, and launch a global multilingual education program, expand access to self-custody tools, and engage in advocacy work aimed at policymakers and activists.

Aave has released the latest developments regarding the rsETH security incident on platform X, disclosing that operations related to rsETH reserves have been suspended on the Ethereum mainnet and networks such as Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea, in order to prevent excess aETH rsETH from being withdrawn, thereby pushing the position closer to the 95% liquidation threshold.This measure aims to preserve as much capital as possible during the asset recovery plan process and reduce systemic risk. Aave stated that further developments and disposal plans will continue to be disclosed to the community.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report indicating that cryptocurrency exchanges are gradually providing bank-like services, such as lending and earn products, but lack the regulation and deposit protection found in traditional financial systems, posing systemic risks.The report states that these high-yield products are essentially closer to "unsecured loans," where user assets are often used by the platform for high-risk operations such as lending, trading, or market making, and users only hold a creditor position against the platform. If the platform encounters problems, users will be directly exposed to repayment risks. The BIS also noted that leading cryptocurrency platforms have evolved from single exchanges into "multi-functional intermediaries," integrating the functions of banks, brokerages, and exchanges, but lacking transparency and risk isolation mechanisms. The previous collapses of Celsius Network and FTX are typical cases of such structural risks. Additionally, the report mentioned that the flash crash in the cryptocurrency market in October 2025 triggered approximately $19 billion in forced liquidations, highlighting the chain reaction risks under high leverage and opaque structures.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform, stating that there is a significant risk associated with a single data source in light of the recent incident where weather sensors at Paris airport were interfered with, affecting the outcomes of prediction markets.He pointed out that for such data-driven prediction markets, at least the median of three independent data sources should be used as a reference to reduce the possibility of manipulation.

According to Decrypt, Coinbase's Quantum Computing and Blockchain Independent Advisory Committee released a report on Tuesday stating that proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchains may face a greater risk of exposure to future quantum computing attacks, as the cryptography relied upon by the validator signatures that protect these networks could ultimately be cracked by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. The report points out that PoS networks like Ethereum and Solana rely on cryptographic signatures—Ethereum validators use BLS signatures, while Solana validators and users use Ed25519 signatures—to help the network reach consensus on blocks and maintain consensus.The advisory committee stated, "PoS chains have exposure risks in the signature schemes used by validators to protect the network, which means that the challenges faced by PoS are not just about upgrading wallets; parts of the core consensus mechanism itself may need to be redesigned." The report mentioned recent work by Ethereum developers, including a proposal by co-founder Vitalik Buterin in February to replace BLS validator signatures, KZG commitments, and ECDSA wallet signatures with quantum-resistant alternatives.The committee also listed the digital signatures used in cryptocurrency wallets as another major long-term vulnerability, estimating that about 6.9 million bitcoins belong to the category where the public keys are already visible on-chain. The report stated that the current cryptocurrency system remains secure, as quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptographic signatures do not yet exist.

According to Cointelegraph, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has urged banks to strengthen their cybersecurity defenses due to heightened regulatory concerns arising from the spread of the Mythos AI model under Anthropic in the Asia region.

The DeFi protocol Fluid officially announced the launch of the aWETH redemption protocol. Due to the ETH utilization rate on the Aave platform reaching 100%, many borrowers are currently unable to withdraw funds, and they will face increasing risks if the market fluctuates. The aWETH redemption protocol will allow ETH borrowers to: • Redeem for wstETH or weETH • Immediately restore liquidity • Reduce liquidation risk.If users only borrow ETH, they can fully redeem it. If users have ETH collateral and other debts, the collateral will be seamlessly converted to wstETH or weETH, while the debt remains unchanged. Fluid is collaborating with Lido Finance, EtherFi, and other ecosystem partners to reduce systemic risks in DeFi, alleviate usage pressure, and support a healthier DeFi market. The initial capacity limit of the protocol is set at $1 billion in ETH.

The strategic director of Spark, monetsupply.eth, posted on platform X that as the stablecoin market begins to lack liquidity, the situation is entering a more dangerous phase. I believe that the ETH market is about 16.5% supported by rsETH, and if the loans supported by rsETH experience losses shared between the mainnet and external chains, there may be a 10% to 15% reduction in emode, leaving a remaining 2% to 3% reduction for ETH suppliers to smooth out the umbrella structure.ETH suppliers naturally tend to exit as soon as possible to avoid this risk, so the utilization rate is locked at 100%, and the borrowing rates are insufficient to incentivize the repayment of unrelated LST cycles (wstETH, weETH) to release liquidity. Since users cannot withdraw ETH, those who borrow stablecoins like USDT and use ETH as collateral cannot close their positions even when stablecoin borrowing rates rise, cutting off the typical incentive mechanism to maintain market health.Currently, two unhealthy incentives are causing the market utilization rate to be locked at 100%: 1) ETH holders cannot close their positions to maintain a healthy LTV, and liquidators cannot atomically withdraw or sell collateral, which may lead to bad debts if the ETHUSD price falls. 2) Users supplying USDT, in order to exit their holdings, tend to maximize borrowing of other stablecoins, which is currently generating positive returns (temporarily), thus the exit cost is low; if conditions worsen, they can at least recover 75% of the position value.The bottom line is that these pooled/re-staked lending markets must maintain liquidity at all costs to operate normally. The recent weakening of slope2 against Aave's maximum borrowing rate is having a negative impact and significantly increasing the risk of failure in the yield market.

etherFi posted on platform X that its Liquid treasury is temporarily not directly exposed to the Kelp rsETH event risk, but as a precautionary measure, it has suspended the LayerZero cross-chain bridging functionality for weETH and eETH until the root cause of the Kelp rs ETH event is clarified. Meanwhile, for Liquid (ETH, BTC, USD), sETHFI, and eBTC products, the relevant Teller contracts have been suspended to block the LayerZero OFT bridging path, and the deposit and withdrawal functions for the related assets have also been suspended. They are currently working closely with security partners and will provide timely updates once more details are confirmed.

Michael Egorov, the founder of Curve Finance, posted on the X platform expressing hope that Aave can address the relevant issues. He pointed out that non-isolated lending has good scalability but carries higher risks, with the key being risk management, an area where Aave has historically performed well.He stated that the market can adopt a fully isolated model like that of Curve Finance or a hybrid model, although the latter is very complex, it is feasible. However, the market has yet to understand its advantages. Michael Egorov also mentioned that Aave v4's hub and spoke model might be a step towards a semi-isolated and safer direction.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the longer the Middle East war drags on, the greater the risks to inflation and employment will be.

According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that supply shocks pose risks to the Fed's inflation and employment targets, and the current interest rate range "may be appropriate for some time."

One of the Bitcoin contributors, Jameson Loop, along with other cryptographers, has proposed an initiative that may force Bitcoin holders to migrate their tokens to new quantum-resistant addresses, or else their tokens will be permanently frozen by the network itself. In this scenario, holders technically still own these coins but will lose the ability to transfer them. This is known as Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which was updated on Tuesday in Bitcoin's official proposal repository, titled "Post-Quantum Migration and Old Signature Retirement."BIP-361 builds on the BIP-360 proposal introduced in February. BIP-360 introduced a soft fork (a type of network upgrade) aimed at enabling a new transaction type called "Pay to Merkle Root" (P2MR). This approach draws on Bitcoin's Taproot (P2TR) framework but removes key-based spending paths, thereby eliminating an element widely considered to pose risks in the quantum era.The BIP-361 proposal divides the migration into three phases. Phase A starts three years after activation and prohibits anyone from sending new bitcoins to old, quantum-vulnerable addresses. You can still spend from these addresses, but you cannot receive any coins. Phase B starts five years after activation and will render old signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely ineffective, with the network rejecting any attempts to spend coins from quantum-vulnerable wallets.Essentially, your coins will be frozen. Finally, there is Phase C, which is a rescue plan still under research: holders of frozen wallets may potentially prove ownership through zero-knowledge proofs (a method of proving knowledge of a secret without revealing the secret itself). If successful, the coins frozen in Phase B can be recovered.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein stated that the previous pullback of Bitcoin has to some extent reflected the market's concerns about the risks of quantum computing, believing that this threat is "real but manageable," and is not yet an imminent systemic risk.Although research, including that from Google, suggests that future quantum computers could potentially crack commonly used blockchain encryption algorithms quickly under extreme conditions, advancements in zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography have formed a hedge to some extent.Bernstein believes that Bitcoin developers still have about 3 to 5 years to advance the post-quantum upgrade path and mentioned the current BIP-360 proposal, which could reduce some quantum exposure risks through a soft fork. Additionally, institutional investors (including ETF issuers and corporate holders) are expected to play an active role in promoting consensus for the upgrade.However, industry opinions point out that the main challenge of the post-quantum upgrade lies in user migration and consensus formation, rather than the technical implementation itself.