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Bernstein: The structural strengthening of the cryptocurrency market suggests that Bitcoin is likely to enter a longer-term bull market

According to The Block, analysts at research firm Bernstein stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. The recent low of $60,000 for Bitcoin has formed a clear bottom, and the current price is approaching $80,000. Driven by institutional demand, a longer structural bull market is expected.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out the following core driving factors:Institutional channels continue to expand: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have been launched one after another, with about 60% of Bitcoin supply not having moved for over a year, indicating a stable holder structure;Strategy continues to increase holdings: its STRC perpetual preferred stock product attracts income-focused investors, with current holdings reaching 818,334 Bitcoins;Demand for stablecoins reaches an all-time high: stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the price cycle of the crypto market, showing that real payment and settlement demand continues to grow;Tokenization of real assets accelerates expansion: the scale of tokenized assets such as private credit and government bonds has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%.Bernstein also noted that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, but the blockchain ecosystem is expected to have ample time to complete the post-quantum security transition.

first_img Former BlackRock executive Joseph Chalom: Over 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, and Asian regulators should not allow payment rails to be dominated by the dollar

ChainCatcher reported live that HashKey Capital CEO Deng Chao and Sharplink CEO Joseph Chalom jointly attended the 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival roundtable discussion, exploring "From Finance to Strategy: How Public Companies Are Positioning Themselves Based on Digital Assets."Chalom, who worked at BlackRock for 20 years, began leading BlackRock's blockchain and digital assets team six years ago, during which he launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, raising about $100 billion at its peak. He stated that the choice to establish a digital asset treasury with Ethereum rather than Bitcoin is because Ethereum is a "native productive asset," which can earn nearly 3% returns through staking, while Bitcoin can only be held in anticipation of appreciation. Sharplink has been listed on Nasdaq and has raised billions of dollars to purchase Ethereum since launching its digital asset treasury strategy last June, currently holding approximately 770,000 ETH and earning about 17,000 ETH and over $35 million in rewards for investors through staking.Regarding industry trends, he pointed out that Ethereum is dominating three major use cases: stablecoins (over 60% occur on Ethereum), asset tokenization, and decentralized finance. He specifically warned that currently over 95% of stablecoins are denominated in US dollars, and if stablecoins are to become the payment rail for trillions of transactions in the AI economy, Asian regulators should not allow them to be dominated by the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, as this will trigger a geopolitical competition to advance local stablecoin legislation.Discussing market cycles, he noted that the crypto market has experienced significant pullbacks since last October, with short-term prices being unpredictable, but in the long term, the current risk-reward ratio is at its best level in a long time. He emphasized that digital asset treasuries are not passive investments; Ethereum is a high-volatility asset, and volatility is a characteristic of capital appreciation rather than a defect.

Analyst: The Bitcoin funding rate has dropped to a new low since 2023, which may trigger a short squeeze, and BTC is expected to rise to $125,000

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospects for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "look very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The funding rate is so negative that it indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, further accelerating the price upward." He predicts that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the market price, indicating that holders are overall in a state of unrealized losses. Since 2016, consistently falling below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturns, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56%, lasting 339 days).Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist. The former may trigger a significant rise, but ultimately could be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future market direction may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be sustained after its expiration next week.
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