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BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

Ethena stated that it has not yet received a satisfactory root cause analysis of the rsETH incident and will extend the temporary suspension period of the OFT bridge. While this may be frustrating, it is a prudent measure to ensure the safe cross-chain transfer of user assets.Ethena has released a new proof of reserves, verified by independent third-party verification agencies (Chainlink, Chaos Labs, LlamaRisk, and Harris & Trotter), confirming that the collateral support ratio for USDe remains above 100%.

Analyst Markus Thielen stated that the fund flow into Bitcoin ETFs has recently turned positive again and is expected to achieve net inflows for the second consecutive month, indicating an improvement in market sentiment.Data shows that the current fund flow trend is highly similar to that of the same period in 2025. At that time, the fund inflow was relatively smooth at the beginning of the year, but then there was a concentrated inflow of about $30 billion, which drove Bitcoin to continue rising in the following months.Analysis suggests that the recent fund inflow indicates that the market has gradually digested the previous selling pressure, marking the first net inflow since March, which may provide support for future market trends.

According to CoinDesk, based on data from Arkham Intelligence and The Information, SpaceX currently holds 8,285 bitcoins in its Coinbase Prime custody account, valued at approximately $603 million, while the company is projected to incur nearly $5 billion in losses for the full year of 2025.Financially, SpaceX's revenue is expected to increase to $18.5 billion in 2025, but due to the acquisition and integration of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI in February this year, costs have exceeded revenue, leading to a significant reversal from a profit of about $8 billion in 2024 to a loss of nearly $5 billion.Despite recording substantial losses, SpaceX's bitcoin holdings have remained unchanged since mid-2024, showing no signs of reduction. CoinDesk's on-chain transfer records indicate that the last significant asset movement occurred about four months ago, involving a rebalancing operation of 614 and 1,021 bitcoins between SpaceX's internal wallets. The value of the holdings peaked at over $1.6 billion during the historical high of bitcoin in October 2025.In terms of corporate bitcoin holdings, SpaceX is currently the fourth largest known corporate holder, following Strategy, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms.

Nasdaq submitted a rule change to extend the timeline for switching the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) from specific listing requirements to general listing standards, from the originally scheduled first quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2026, to give the sponsor BlackRock more time to complete the transition.The change was submitted on March 31, 2026, and took effect immediately.

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) recalled in his new book that after the "9·4" regulatory policy was introduced in 2017, venture capital firms as a whole became more cautious, and Sequoia Capital, which had originally expressed investment intentions, also paused related cooperation. He stated, "Seeing the venture capitalists collectively silent during our most difficult September, I was actually quite disappointed."CZ revealed that prior to this, Sequoia had expressed investment interest at the beginning of He Yi's joining, but chose to wait and see in light of the policy impact. Subsequently, Binance achieved rapid growth from September to October, with the number of users increasing from about 20,000 in August to about 120,000 by late October, ranking among the top ten exchanges globally and becoming profitable.CZ stated that by the end of October, after the risk phase had basically passed, Sequoia re-expressed its investment intentions, but they had proposed to raise the valuation requirement. Ultimately, the two sides could not reach an agreement due to valuation differences. The other party then proposed to pursue legal proceedings, and a week later, four large boxes of legal documents were delivered. CZ said this was the "first time in his life becoming a defendant." CZ mentioned that he later learned that the lawsuit was led by Sequoia's legal team in the U.S., who are skilled at using the media to create public opinion, "the media reporters knew before I, the party involved."

According to CoinDesk, in the first quarter of 2026, institutional investors purchased a total of 69,000 bitcoins, while retail investors sold 62,000 bitcoins during the same period.

The RWA tokenization platform OpenEden announced on platform X that all team and advisor tokens will continue to be locked for 9 months, and the overall unlocking period will also be extended by the same duration. Therefore, the unlocking period for all team and advisor tokens will be postponed to January 2027.

According to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin further falls below $60,000, the time for the market to recover to historical highs may be delayed until 2027.Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025. According to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period is extended by an average of about 80 days. If $60,000 is the bottom for this phase, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to drop to the $40,000-$45,000 range, the overall retracement will exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027.On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12-0.15), indicating that there is still room for further downside. In terms of capital flow, the continued selling by whales is intensifying pressure. Data shows that the selling intensity by large holders has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further delay the recovery pace of the cryptocurrency market.

According to Gate market data, the Nasdaq 100 Index has fallen 10% from its October high and is about to enter a correction period.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that given inflation is above target levels, interest rates may need to remain unchanged for a period of time.

Coinbase Institutional published an analysis on platform X, pointing out that amidst recent geopolitical turmoil disrupting traditional financial markets, sentiment in the crypto market may be shifting, especially with Bitcoin showing relatively strong performance.Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin's performance has outpaced the U.S. stock market, and market views suggest that the crypto market may be gradually emerging from a "period of extreme pessimism." The latest macro data indicates that U.S. non-farm employment growth is cooling, challenging the previous narrative that "the labor market remains resilient." Meanwhile, Bitcoin's value proposition as a relatively independent asset may be further enhanced in the eyes of institutional investors. Additionally, the rise in systematic leverage ratios reflects an improvement in participation in the crypto market. However, the market remains cautiously optimistic, with investors still waiting for further confirmation of the trend and continuously monitoring whether market participation can support a sustained upward trend.

According to market news, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated that U.S. regulators will propose rules for implementing the final phase of the Basel III framework in the coming weeks, expected to be released during the week of March 17 to 21, followed by a 90-day public comment period.The proposal is being coordinated by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. According to the global crypto framework finalized by the Basel Committee in 2022, Bitcoin is classified as a Group 2b asset, which regulators consider difficult to hedge and inherently volatile, facing a risk weight of 1250%. This means that a bank holding $100 million in Bitcoin exposure will be viewed as having $1.25 billion in risk-weighted assets, requiring approximately $100 million in capital.Compared to the zero risk weight for cash, gold, and U.S. Treasury securities, as well as the 20%-100% range for corporate loans, the capital treatment of Bitcoin is extremely harsh. Crypto industry institutions criticize the framework for misclassifying Bitcoin, hindering banks from providing related services.

Ethena announced that the unbonding cooldown period for sUSDe will change to a dynamic mechanism, linked to the amount of liquid stablecoins in the USDe reserves. This means that the current unbonding period for sUSDe, which has been a fixed 7 days since the project launched, will be adjusted to just 1 day. In the future, the cooldown period will dynamically vary between 1 day and 7 days based on the composition of liquid assets in the USDe reserves.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, recently shared her views on the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. She stated that although the bill faces resistance due to the withdrawal of support from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and controversies in the banking sector, its complexity determines the long-term nature of the legislative process. Current negotiations exhibit two new characteristics: first, senior officials from the White House are directly involved, with presidential aides like David Sacks pushing for dispute resolution; second, traditional financial institutions are participating in negotiations for the first time.If the Senate Banking Committee can complete its review of the bill by March or April, there is hope to advance the legislation before the July recess; otherwise, the next window will not open until the fall. Smith, who previously led the Blockchain Association and spearheaded the passage of the Genius Act, believes that despite facing opposition from figures like Elizabeth Warren, the support from key Democrats such as Chuck Schumer and the ongoing pressure from President Trump are changing the odds of the bill's passage. On Wednesday, after Trump urged the banking sector to make concessions in a post on Truth Social, expectations in the market for the passage of cryptocurrency legislation within the year have noticeably increased.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve official Collins stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate target is expected to remain stable "for some time."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that from a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve is in a good position and is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for a considerable period of time.

WLFI has proposed a governance staking system aimed at encouraging more users to participate in governance. According to the proposal, in the future, using unlocked WLFI tokens to participate in governance voting will require staking, with a minimum lock-up period of 180 days.The system will introduce a tiered node structure: ordinary stakers can earn approximately 2% annual rewards; users who stake 10 million WLFI (about 1 million USD) can become nodes and enjoy 1:1 exchange rights for stablecoins such as USDT and USDC with USD1; users who stake 50 million WLFI (about 5 million USD) can become super nodes and gain direct cooperation opportunities with the WLFI team. The proposal requires a quorum of 1 billion WLFI voting tokens to be valid, with a voting period of 7 days. If approved, implementation will be carried out in three phases.