risk

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that investors' risk appetite has rebounded to pre-Iran war levels. With bets that the worst-case scenario of a U.S.-Iran war will not occur, stock market volatility has significantly decreased. Retail investors in the U.S. have re-entered the stock market, and automated trading has also driven the stock market up. In the four weeks ending last Wednesday, investors withdrew nearly $125 billion from safe-haven money market funds, marking one of the largest outflows on record.

According to CoinDesk, while quantum computers cannot disrupt the Bitcoin mining mechanism or the blockchain ledger, they may potentially crack the elliptic curve encryption system that protects wallet ownership through Shor's algorithm. Currently, about 6.9 million BTC (approximately one-third of the total supply) face potential risks due to public keys being visible on-chain, including around 1 million early holdings by Satoshi Nakamoto; transactions generated after the Taproot upgrade in 2021 are also affected due to public key exposure.Ethereum has established a formal quantum resistance migration plan since 2018, with 4 full-time teams and over 10 independent development groups, and has launched a dedicated progress website at pq.ethereum.org. In contrast, Bitcoin currently lacks a unified response roadmap, and the existing BIP-360 proposal and BitMEX Research detection scheme have not received widespread support from core developers. Notable Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter pointed out that Bitcoin's response is "the worst," while Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes that current quantum systems are still in the laboratory stage, but he also agrees that optional upgrade solutions should be deployed in advance.Analysts point out that Bitcoin's anti-centralization governance culture makes coordinating large-scale security upgrades extremely difficult, and how to handle historical legacy issues such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings is particularly challenging. A related paper from Google warns that once quantum attacks become a reality, the window for response may have already closed.

BIT tweeted that in the past two issues of the "Biton Target" report, we hinted that the bear market phase of Bitcoin may be nearing its end. Signals from multiple time dimensions are gradually forming resonance, supporting this judgment. When this judgment was made, Bitcoin was approaching the downward trend line formed since the bear market began in October 2025, just one step away from breaking upwards. Meanwhile, the weekly stochastic oscillator has fallen to a low not seen since January 2023, which was near the phase bottom after the end of the 2021/2022 bear market. Historically, this indicator reading often corresponds to market bottom areas.Our Bitcoin trend model has turned bullish. Trend signals do not always materialize, but considering that Bitcoin itself has strong trends and high volatility characteristics, after the previous two signals reversed quickly, the current round of movement has better conditions for continuation. Additionally, Bitcoin's price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average, which has a critical boundary significance in our bull-bear judgment framework.$73,000 has always been an important watershed since March 2024 and is a key threshold for confirming whether this trend can reverse. Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $70,000. If it can effectively break through and stabilize above $73,000, the reversal signal will be further confirmed. Currently, various indicators are overall positive, but before the price enters this round's target range, the upward pace may still be disturbed by phase risk factors, so attention should be maintained.

According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr), the discount for short-term holders (STH) has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, and the 7-day moving average of STH-SOPR has risen back above 1, indicating that short-term sellers are no longer clearly in a loss position. However, the current price is still below the cost basis of $83,000, and the market has not yet entered a true risk appetite phase.

According to market news, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering around $77,800, and the upward trend that started at $65,000 since Wednesday has clearly slowed down; ETH is reported at $2,300, with a 24-hour decline of about 0.8%, underperforming BTC.The market pressure mainly comes from two aspects: first, Japan's corporate service price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in March, exceeding expectations, and core inflation is also accelerating upward. The market expects the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at the next policy meeting, and a stronger yen could trigger the unwinding of carry trades in global risk assets; second, the ongoing war in Iran continues to disrupt oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 40% to $96 per barrel since the outbreak of the war. The U.S. Pentagon warns that clearing mines will take at least six months, and global inflationary pressures may persist, further compressing the Federal Reserve's space for interest rate cuts.

Aave has released the latest developments regarding the rsETH security incident on platform X, disclosing that operations related to rsETH reserves have been suspended on the Ethereum mainnet and networks such as Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea, in order to prevent excess aETH rsETH from being withdrawn, thereby pushing the position closer to the 95% liquidation threshold.This measure aims to preserve as much capital as possible during the asset recovery plan process and reduce systemic risk. Aave stated that further developments and disposal plans will continue to be disclosed to the community.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report indicating that cryptocurrency exchanges are gradually providing bank-like services, such as lending and earn products, but lack the regulation and deposit protection found in traditional financial systems, posing systemic risks.The report states that these high-yield products are essentially closer to "unsecured loans," where user assets are often used by the platform for high-risk operations such as lending, trading, or market making, and users only hold a creditor position against the platform. If the platform encounters problems, users will be directly exposed to repayment risks. The BIS also noted that leading cryptocurrency platforms have evolved from single exchanges into "multi-functional intermediaries," integrating the functions of banks, brokerages, and exchanges, but lacking transparency and risk isolation mechanisms. The previous collapses of Celsius Network and FTX are typical cases of such structural risks. Additionally, the report mentioned that the flash crash in the cryptocurrency market in October 2025 triggered approximately $19 billion in forced liquidations, highlighting the chain reaction risks under high leverage and opaque structures.

Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform, stating that there is a significant risk associated with a single data source in light of the recent incident where weather sensors at Paris airport were interfered with, affecting the outcomes of prediction markets.He pointed out that for such data-driven prediction markets, at least the median of three independent data sources should be used as a reference to reduce the possibility of manipulation.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore has released a consultation document proposing to establish a more friendly regulatory capital guideline for the treatment of crypto assets on permissionless blockchains before implementing the Basel capital requirements for crypto assets.It is reported that the Basel capital requirements for crypto assets categorize them into two groups. The first group involves tokenized traditional assets and stablecoins, which are subject to lower capital requirements.The second group involves crypto assets that do not meet the above conditions. The Monetary Authority of Singapore intends to abandon the practice of categorizing all crypto assets on permissionless blockchains as part of the second group, allowing them to be classified as first group crypto assets with lower risk weights and more lenient prudential requirements, provided they meet a series of principled requirements. Specifically, for banks registered in Singapore, the risk exposure of permissionless blockchain crypto assets classified as first group crypto assets must not exceed 2% of the bank's Tier 1 capital, and if the issuance creates liabilities at the bank level, the issuance scale must not exceed 5% of Tier 1 capital.

According to Decrypt, Coinbase's Quantum Computing and Blockchain Independent Advisory Committee released a report on Tuesday stating that proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchains may face a greater risk of exposure to future quantum computing attacks, as the cryptography relied upon by the validator signatures that protect these networks could ultimately be cracked by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. The report points out that PoS networks like Ethereum and Solana rely on cryptographic signatures—Ethereum validators use BLS signatures, while Solana validators and users use Ed25519 signatures—to help the network reach consensus on blocks and maintain consensus.The advisory committee stated, "PoS chains have exposure risks in the signature schemes used by validators to protect the network, which means that the challenges faced by PoS are not just about upgrading wallets; parts of the core consensus mechanism itself may need to be redesigned." The report mentioned recent work by Ethereum developers, including a proposal by co-founder Vitalik Buterin in February to replace BLS validator signatures, KZG commitments, and ECDSA wallet signatures with quantum-resistant alternatives.The committee also listed the digital signatures used in cryptocurrency wallets as another major long-term vulnerability, estimating that about 6.9 million bitcoins belong to the category where the public keys are already visible on-chain. The report stated that the current cryptocurrency system remains secure, as quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptographic signatures do not yet exist.

MonetSupply, the strategy director at Spark, posted on platform X that Aave has decided to lift the freeze on the Ethereum Core WETH market. Under the current interest rate model, LST/LRT holders can execute high-leverage circular strategies using assets like weETH, taking advantage of the approximately 0.5% discount on the weETH market price and the Aave ETH borrowing rate cap of 5.15%, to achieve an annualized return potential of about 45%.Currently, the utilization rate of the aEthWETH market has reached 100%, making it more difficult for regular depositors and stablecoin borrowing users to exit or refinance from aWETH. MonetSupply pointed out that this decision provides arbitrage opportunities without addressing the liquidity tension of aEthWETH, weakening the liquidity and experience for regular users.

BNB Treasury Company BNB Plus disclosed that it has received a notice from Nasdaq, stating that it no longer meets the continued listing standards due to its stock price being below the minimum requirement of $1, and because it implemented a reverse stock split in the past year, it is not eligible for the regular compliance period. The company stated that it has requested a hearing, and its stock will continue to trade on Nasdaq until the outcome is determined.In addition, BNB Plus announced that the board of directors has approved the initiation of a strategic alternatives assessment to maximize shareholder value, with potential options including mergers, reverse mergers, asset sales, joint ventures, financing, and other transactions. As of now, the value of its crypto treasury assets is approximately $12.2 million.

Lido stated on platform X that its EarnETH treasury was affected by the theft of 116,500 rsETH (approximately $29.2 million) from the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge on April 18.EarnETH holds approximately $21.6 million in rsETH risk exposure through leveraged positions in rsETH/ETH on Aave, accounting for about 9% of the total assets in the treasury. The EarnETH team is currently actively deleveraging to reduce risk, and the outcome depends on the final decisions made by Kelp, LayerZero, and Aave regarding loss sharing and bad debt handling.Lido further stated that EarnETH has a $3 million "first loss protection mechanism" funded by the Lido DAO treasury, which will be used to cover losses if necessary. The treasury has currently suspended redemption processing to assess the losses. This incident does not affect stETH and wstETH, and the core staking protocol of Lido is not involved.

According to The Block, despite the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran disrupting expectations in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fluctuations in the oil, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday.Analysts stated that the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week was $996.4 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, with institutional demand providing support for the market. However, the current market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances continuing to grow, indicating that liquidity in the crypto market is more rotating internally rather than flowing out.

According to Cointelegraph, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has urged banks to strengthen their cybersecurity defenses due to heightened regulatory concerns arising from the spread of the Mythos AI model under Anthropic in the Asia region.