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Report: The new round of Bitcoin bull market may be more enduring, the industry's "best stage is still ahead"

Research institution Bernstein's latest report states that as Bitcoin approaches the $80,000 mark, the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase of structural growth. This cycle may last longer than previous ones and has "asymmetric upside potential." The report points out that the previous drop to $60,000 has formed a temporary bottom, and the market is being driven by the integration of institutional funds and the traditional financial system.Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated, "The best times for the crypto industry are still ahead, which will be reflected in a higher and more sustained bull market cycle." In terms of supply structure, about 60% of Bitcoin has not been transferred for over a year, indicating an increase in the proportion of long-term holders; at the same time, ETFs and corporate balance sheet allocations continue to absorb supply. Strategy currently holds approximately 818,000 BTC, and its yield-generating products are attracting more traditional funds.On the institutional channel front, Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab are expanding Bitcoin ETF and spot trading access, further lowering investment thresholds. Fundamentally, the supply of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, and the demand for real payments and settlements has increased; the tokenization scale of real-world assets (RWA) has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%. Additionally, platforms like Hyperliquid are driving increased activity in on-chain stock and commodity trading.The report also warns that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk to crypto security, but it is manageable in the short term, and the industry has ample time to transition to quantum-resistant standards.

Analysis: With the rise of smart agent payments, Circle and Coinbase have become the "best representative targets" benefiting from the growth of stablecoins

According to The Block, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein pointed out that Circle and Coinbase are the main tools for gaining exposure to the growth of stablecoins, due to the partnership between the two companies around USDC and the emerging role of stablecoins in smart agent payments, which could become an important driver of their future growth.In a report released on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote, "We believe that smart agent payments provide an upside optionality for stablecoins. This is not a factor that currently has a substantial impact on the demand for stablecoins, but in the future smart agent economy, stablecoins may play a certain role." The analysts noted that so-called machine payments refer to transactions initiated, authorized, and completed by software or autonomous devices, rather than by human operation. These payments differ from automatic bill payments or subscription models; they are essentially programmatic, enabling real-time decision-making, price negotiation, and instant settlement without human intervention.Bernstein believes that stablecoins have a natural advantage in this environment because of their programmability, instant settlement capabilities, support for micropayments, and global reach. Payment logic such as escrow, conditional payments, or revenue distribution can be directly embedded in stablecoins, allowing smart agents to complete transactions without connecting to banks or waiting for confirmations.The report also pointed out that transactions can be settled in seconds, allowing AI agents to pay for computing power or data in real-time; high-throughput blockchains and state channels make large-scale micropayments economically viable; at the same time, stablecoins have cross-border attributes, eliminating the need to rely on SWIFT, correspondent banking systems, or foreign exchange conversions, thereby further reducing transaction costs.

Rick Rieder, a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, manages BlackRock's $2.4 trillion in assets and is regarded as the person who understands the bond market best in the United States

According to Fortune, in the past two weeks, Rick Rieder's odds of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair on Polymarket have surged to nearly 50%, clearly leading over the second-ranked Kevin Warsh (29%) and the third-ranked Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder's career has been almost entirely on the front lines of the global bond market, working as a trader and asset manager, deeply involved in the market, interpreting and profiting from central bank policy signals. Simply put, no one understands the bond market better than Rick Rieder. And in Trump's policy decision-making, nothing is more important than "whether the bond market is up or down."Currently, Rieder is responsible for BlackRock's global fixed income business, managing up to $2.4 trillion, which accounts for about one-sixth of the $14 trillion in assets under management at the world's largest asset management firm. A former CEO who worked with Rieder described him as "extremely personable" and stated that Rieder "has a very good understanding of how the market operates and is able to maintain independent judgment."If Rieder takes over as Federal Reserve Chair in May, he will face extremely daunting challenges. His stance on the federal funds rate has long been clear and is more aligned with Trump's camp. In an interview with CNBC on January 12, Rieder stated, "The Fed needs to lower rates to 3% (currently 3.50%--3.75%), which I believe is closer to a balanced level." The problem is that the Fed is currently implementing two policies that could potentially raise inflation. In mid-December last year, the central bank reversed its previous quantitative tightening (QT) policy. Additionally, the Fed is also reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold at the central bank.

Yi Lihua: The four-year cycle rule has become ineffective, and now is the best time to buy the dip in cryptocurrency

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua responded to his ETH long strategy:Regarding "ETH below the last peak, BTC above the last peak?" Yi Lihua stated that this round is in a rate hike cycle, BTC has broken new highs, but the overall crypto market is underperforming; this is the toughest four years for crypto. In the upcoming rate cut cycle, he believes a crypto bull market can be expected, and ETH will outperform BTC, as historically, in several bull markets, ETH has outperformed BTC."Buying the dip around 3000 USD for ETH, worried about further declines in a bear market?" Yi Lihua believes the four-year cycle pattern has failed, and now is the best time to buy the dip in crypto, especially for ETH. There are huge opportunities in stablecoin and U.S. Treasury on-chain financial services, and ETH will be the biggest beneficiary. Regarding the safety of ETH leveraged positions, Yi Lihua stated that he is fully prepared and can repay most of the borrowed positions at any time; ETH prices above 1000 USD are absolutely safe."Why rush to buy the dip instead of waiting for lower prices?" Yi Lihua said that no one can accurately time the bottom, and the previous BTC bull market example also shows that the difference is not significant. The core is that the current area is already at the bottom; if you don't buy in, the market will still buy in, and the impact of institutional size on trends is limited. "How to view short-side KOLs mocking the bulls?" he stated that the market has both long and short positions coexisting, and if the viewpoints of all parties are reasonable, they will be referenced and learned from; extreme or low-quality exposure behaviors will be ignored."Frequent updates on Twitter shouting long for ETH, reason for clearing at 4500 USD?" Yi Lihua stated that he is long-term bullish on ETH, and clearing at 4500 USD is to address phase risks, with transparent operations, aimed at acquiring more ETH rather than offloading. He mentioned that the total market cap of ETH is 360 billion USD, and even as one of the largest ETH investors globally, it cannot influence the trend; everything should follow the trend.
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